Disgruntled French set to vote out Sarkozy

Voters look set to turn their backs on conservative Nicolas Sarkozy in Sunday's first round of an election that could give France its first left-wing president in 17 years just as fears resurface over Europe's sovereign debt crisis.
A sickly economy and a deep dislike of Sarkozy's flashy style have dominated the campaign, but the outside world's doubts about France's commitment to balance its public finances are also at stake as feeble growth threatens deficit-cutting targets in Europe's No 2 economy.
The centre-right president, an impulsive showman, and his bland Socialist challenger, Francois Hollande, are neck-and-neck in opinion polls for the first round on about 27-28 percent. But Hollande has a wide lead in voting intentions for a May 6 runoff between the top two candidates.
Far-right anti-immigration crusader Marine Le Pen, who wants France to abandon the euro, looks set to come third, with hard left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon fourth and centrist Francois Bayrou fifth, polls show. Sarkozy has been a striking figure on the international stage for five years, leading the European response to the global financial crisis, spearheading Western military action in Libya and working in close partnership with powerful German Chancellor Angela Merkel to manage the euro zone crisis.
But at home, he is unpopular because of a leadership style criticised as vulgar and for being too close to the rich, as well as feeling the brunt of anger over rife unemployment and economic gloom. "There is a very deep rejection of Nicolas Sarkozy," said a former conservative politician who left the ruling UMP party last year. "This election is above all a rejection of his person, of this omnipresent and arrogant government."
Hollande, 57, promises to tread a fiscally responsible path, but his focus on tax rises over spending cuts and his call to renegotiate a European budget discipline pact has some analysts concerned that he would create a new euro zone stress point. The Socialist says he wants to change Europe's direction by leading a drive for growth-promoting measures instead of austerity if he wins, setting up a potential clash with Merkel.
Polls will be open on Sunday from 8 am (0600 GMT) to 6 pm (1600 GMT), and two hours extra in big cities. Reliable projections of the result based on a partial count are published as soon as the last polling stations close at 8 pm (1800 GMT). The authorities are threatening big fines to try to prevent exit polls and partial results leaking out on Twitter and the Internet before that deadline. France is struggling with feeble growth, a gaping trade deficit, stubbornly high 10 percent unemployment and strained public finances that prompted Standard & Poor's to cut its triple-A credit in January.
"You can't detach France from what's going on in the wider euro zone and this election happens to coincide with a lot of other things that are exacerbating concern about the vote," said Nomura chief political analyst Alastair Newton, noting that Greece has an election the same day as the French runoff.
Hollande has promised to cut the deficit to zero by 2017, a year later than Sarkozy, but both are using growth forecasts that are far above what economists expect, and may have to scramble to find extra revenue or savings. Hollande says he aims to be a "Mr Normal" president. But his lack of dazzle has boosted support for Melenchon, who fires up crowds with calls for a citizens' revolution and confiscatory taxes on the rich.
The radical trails at least 10 points behind the mainstream candidates in opinion polls though and, after a brief surge, has fallen back behind Le Pen in the battle for the angry vote. Sarkozy and Hollande have drawn criticism for pandering to the extremes and evading the real issues as Sarkozy swung right on immigration and trade protectionism while Hollande lurched to the left by promising a 75 percent top tax rate for people earning more than 1 million euros ($1.31 million) a year.
Both Sarkozy and Hollande have vowed to tackle France's industrial decline due to a lack of competitiveness against low-cost foreign manufacturers, but they have shied away from promising deep structural reforms. On the other hand, both have raised hackles in Berlin by criticising European policies. Hollande wants measures to stimulate growth such as jointly issued bonds to finance investment projects added to a European fiscal compact treaty.