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Iranian Vice President Mohammad Javed Mohammadizadeh during his meeting with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on the sidelines of the Forum for Asia being held in Boao China, categorically placed the ball for implementation of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project firmly in Pakistan's court. He is reported to have stated that Iran had completed its part of the work on the pipeline and urged Pakistan to expedite work on its side.
The critical question is whether Pakistan would be violating United Nations sanctions against Iran, binding on Pakistan if it proceeds with the pipeline project, or would it merely be violating US sanctions which are not binding on Pakistan. The United Nations Security Council Resolution passed on June 9, 2010 sanctioned Iran from "participating in any activities related to ballistic missiles, tightened the arms embargo, travel bans on individuals involved with the programme, froze the funds and assets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, and recommended that states inspect Iranian cargo, prohibit the servicing of Iranian vessels involved in prohibited activities, prevent the provision of financial services used for sensitive nuclear activities, closely watch Iranian individuals and entities when dealing with them, prohibit the opening of Iranian banks on their territory and prevent Iranian banks from entering into relationship with their banks if it might contribute to the nuclear programme, and prevent financial institutions operating in their territory from opening offices and accounts in Iran."
However, the United States has imposed an arms ban and an almost total economic embargo on Iran, which includes sanctions on companies doing business with Iran, a ban on all Iranian-origin imports, sanctions on Iranian financial institutions, and an almost total ban on selling aircraft or repair parts to Iranian aviation companies. On 23rd January 2012, the European Union (EU) froze assets of Iran's central bank and reduced co-operation with Iran in trade, financial services, and energy sectors including disconnecting 25 Iranian banks and its central bank from the Brussels-based SWIFT financial messaging network due to US pressure.
Pakistani officials also maintain that while the US is putting considerable pressure on Pakistan not to implement the IP project yet it has not offered any viable alternative to meet the country's severe energy crisis. The US, these officials point out credibly, continues to refuse to extend a nuclear agreement on the same pattern as that offered to India and is dragging its feet with respect to disbursements under the Kerry-Lugar bill that envisaged 1.5 billion dollar civilian assistance for five years - money that could be channelled to develop a viable energy sector in the country. True that the World Bank recently approved over 700 million dollars to supplement Tarbela's generation capacity considerably, money that analysts believe required a nudge from the US State Department, yet this is not considered sufficient to deal with the existing energy crisis that each year down the line becomes more acute as demand rises, while it is costing billions of rupees in the loss of domestic productivity each year.
The Pakistan government had relied on its time-honoured friend China to financially assist in laying the IP pipeline - a country which is also not a signatory to any sanctions other than those imposed by the UN. Recently however, the government of Pakistan received a setback when the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reportedly withdrew its financial support which Pakistani officials believed was due to US pressure. The options for financing are therefore limited due to pervasive US influence. However one country that remains defiant at present is Putin's Russia. Gazprom not only has the necessary finances but also the experience to assist Pakistan in laying the pipeline. Perhaps the time has come to explore this option more proactively.
China, Russia and India have announced their decision to abide by UN sanctions though not the US-led sanctions. The US may be applying subtle pressure on these three countries though it does not seem to be overwhelming as in the case of Pakistan, mainly because its leverage with Pakistan is considerably greater. Perhaps it is time for Pakistan to undertake a transparent cost benefit analysis that together with the current ongoing review of Pakistan's foreign policy, specifically towards the US, would allow our government to take informed decisions in our national interest.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2012

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