Erratic weather showing no mercy to Brazil's coffee crop

Erratic weather is showing no mercy to Brazil's coffee crop as conditions turn dry again, depriving beans of a last moisture boost that would help them swell out more before harvesting begins in about a month, forecasters and agronomists said. The southern Minas Gerais state coffee belt has seen barely a drop of rain so far in April but the crop can at least rely on the decent top-up of rain it had in March, one of the few months to have regular rainfall since the crop's outset last October.
That should be enough to tide over the world's biggest coffee crop for now, agronomists say, though more rain would be welcome to fatten the beans and boost yields. "In the South of Minas and Sao Paulo, where it's cooler, (the dryness)not having such a big influence. It's only once we're processing the coffee that we'll have an idea of yields," said agronomist Mario Ferraz at Brazil's biggest coffee co-operative, Cooxupe.
Rainfall in the two Minas Gerais coffee belt areas monitored by forecaster Somar showed they had received only 5 millimetres and 2 millimetres of rain respectively, only about 5 percent of the average total for the full month of April.
The 2012/13 crop in the world's top coffee grower is expected to turn out a large but sub-record harvest whose potential is likely to be limited by restricted moisture supplies that will result in smaller beans. Though more rain would be welcome to maximise yields, drier weather on the approach to the Southern Hemisphere winter bodes well for the quality of the coming crop which will be left to dry in the open air once harvested, before it can be bagged.
Dry conditions are vital to ensure beans do not spoil during this process and to achieve optimal quality. The world coffee market is increasingly reliant on Brazil for good quality arabicas with now almost chronic harvest problems in Colombia, a producer known for top notch brews.
Forecasters say long-term patterns indicate coffee areas should be fortunate with dry weather in the harvesting period. The agriculture ministry's crop forecasting agency Conab said in January that it expected a record coffee crop this year but the private sector has brushed off the idea and producers are unanimous that output will be less than in the 2010/11 season.
Conab said last year it was gradually changing its forecasting methodology to bring its numbers closer to those of exporters who consistently work with numbers a few million bags higher and may partly account for its higher view. It will issue a revised estimate on May 10.
Producers are heading into this harvest with futures prices nearly one third lower than this time a year ago with July arabicas around $1.84 on New York's ICE exchange. Many producers have slowed sales, hoping that firm fundamentals in the market will cause sliding prices to reverse course.