Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World said on Tuesday it has cut its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soyabean crop by 1.5 million tonnes and its estimate of Brazil's crop by 1.0 million tonnes after poor weather cut yields. The latest forecasts were down from Oil World's Mar. 23 estimates following continued drought in Argentina coupled with damage to Brazil's harvest from storms and crop fungus.
"World supplies of soyabeans have become much tighter following repeated downward revisions of this year's South American production," Oil World said. US soyabean prices touched seven-month highs on Thursday on expectations drought damage to South American soyabean harvests would transfer global import demand to the United States. Oil World now forecasts Argentina's 2012 soyabean crop at 45.0 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million in 2011. Brazil's crop is forecast at 65.5 million tonnes from 75.3 million tonnes in 2011.
The United States is the world's largest soyabean producer followed by Brazil with Argentina in third place. The expected poor South American crops mean global 2011/12 season soyabean output will fall to 240.42 million tonnes from 265.76 million tonnes in 2010/11, Oil World estimates. "This will raise the global dependence on US soyabeans and products in the first half of next season," it said.
Poor South American harvests will in turn mean the United States will need favourable weather and above average yields to meet global demand, it said. US farmers will also have to increase soyabean plantings by at least 2-3 million acres (0.8 to 1.2 million hectares) above the area indicated by US planting intentions on Mar. 30, it said.
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