Sustainable economic growth: report underlines need for reliable, affordable energy supply

Pakistan would continue to face the challenge of investment necessary to foster sustainable economic growth owing to energy crisis, causing Rs524 billion economic losses to the country.
The policy analysis report prepared by International Resources Group on Pakistan Integrated Energy Model for Asian Development Bank and Planning Commission cautioned the country's policy makers that Pakistan is at a critical crossroad and in order to attract the investment necessary to foster sustainable economic growth, there must be a reliable and affordable supply of energy.
To sustain economic growth corresponding to 5.6 percent average GDP between now and 2030, Pakistan would require four-fold increase in electricity generation and delays in moving on critical energy projects will further exasperate the situation.
The elimination of load shedding could avoid Rs524 billion in economic losses and reduction of transmission and distribution losses by 7 percent could saves Rs7.3 billion (gross). The country could save Rs41 billion in net by improving end-use energy efficiency and successful exploration to deliver 20 percent more gas could saves an additional Rs37 billion (gross).
The delay in implementation of policies to achieve these objectives would increase dependency on foreign energy sources. Under current practices and policies proven conventional natural gas reserves will be depleted and country's energy imports could considerably increase in short term and could go up from 27 percent to 30 percent by 2030 of the total supply.
The policy report pointed out that past several years of load-shedding has not just affected the economy but the quality of life for the people of Pakistan that are at stake if the country is not able to identify a reliable roadmap for its energy future.
However, the options are many, and major decisions need to be made by policy makers with the report identifying pros and cons of every policy option.
The thrust of the study remains that the country's economic managers required pursuing intelligent policies to steer the country out of prevailing energy crisis which invariably posing serious economic and social risks to the country.
Potential policy assessments identified in the report are; (i) DISCOs level transmission and distribution (T&D) system improvement;(ii) transition plan for removal of energy sector subsidies; (iii) sectoral gas allocation - most economic utilisation;(iv) power and energy infrastructure priorities under funding constraints. Short-term potential for energy efficiency included; (i) power plant rehabilitation and upgradation ; (ii) gas processing and pipeline improvements ;(iii) residential and commercial buildings and appliances;(iv) industrial processes and captive power generation; (v) transport mode shifts and strategic energy security (reducing imports and supply diversification).