Historic win

The long reluctant spring of democracy is finally breaking out in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma. Repeatedly incarcerated Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has won a seat in her country's military, retired and serving personnel-dominated parliament. In the by-elections to the 44 vacant seats her party the National League for Democracy (NLD) is reported to have won on all but one. Her election was a spectacular 90-plus vote win, setting off euphoria on the streets, raising hope that her party's win could herald a new era for an improvised Myanmar after 50 years of repressive military rule.
Of course the NLD would be a small group in the 445-member house, but her inspirational presence would stir hope that by the general election in 2015 democracy would have struck deeper roots against yet another military take-over. Not that Suu Kyi has the will and grit to withstand pressures; sometime ago when the police stopped her visiting supporters she stayed put for six days in a car - she has the right potential to be a realist. It must be the pragmatic approach she laid bare in her first and so-far only meeting with President Thein Sein that convinced the ruling junta of the need to win her support to take Myanmar out of international isolation, hardened as it is by layers of economic sanctions. At the same time credit cannot be denied to Thein Sein who was eager to embrace the new realities of regional and international politics. Blessed with enormous rich natural resources Mynamar has the promise and potential to take its masses out of the grinding poverty, and the military leadership appears to have decided to wear a democratic face that the iconic leader so courageously carries.
But as is often said there is many a slip between cup and the lip. Between now and the next general elections, will General Sein be able to keep his power-addicted junta on track and let a peaceful transition from military-controlled government to a full-fledged democratic order in Myanmar take place? Way back in the 1990s the country did experience a strong spell of democracy but as the Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy won the majority of seats in the parliament the military rulers refused to hand over power to civil leadership. Not only this, it also came down heavily on her and her partymen and workers. Then there would a continuing trial of Suu Kyi's endurance to put up with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) which enjoys unchallengeable numerical strength in the house. Given the NLD's minority position it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for her to convert the people's expectations into political reality, breeding disenchantment. But the hope is that she has the capacity to show resilience and perseverance and her followers' unshakable belief in her commitment to stand by them through thick and thin. And she is already asking them, as she did in her first public address after her election, not to be overtly optimistic. Addressing the plight of the families and their ability to put food on the table, educate their children and look after their health is a huge challenge, says analyst Richard Horsey, a former United Nations official in Myanmar.
If Myanmar is at last moving out of the shadows of over half-a-century old tight-fisted military control, the external players, international in general and regional in particular, have to let the transition process proceed smoothly. On the face of it, there is a growing impression that in a turnaround in Myanmar, the West sees an opportunity to wrestle it out of China's sphere of influence. But that may not be as easy given that the expected changeover is not likely to result in a power vacuum inviting outside interference. China too has all the means and expertise to help its neighbour unleash its rich natural wealth. On its part, the emerging political order has to review its policies and programmes in areas that still remain unattended: the ethnic insurgencies in the border regions. The tempo set by making up with political dissidents, releasing prisoners of conscience and lifting curbs on the media, the government has clearly showcased its intention to usher in the democratic order. But there is also the need for open dialogue with ethnic insurgents in the border regions in a spirit of national reconciliation. Myanmar has indeed arrived at the threshold of modern times, and the credit for it goes to Aung San Suu Kyi and her steadfast followers inside the country and her devotees in the wider world.