Indonesia markets lag peers as country's glow fades

At the start of 2012, Indonesia was basking in accolades for its economic performance. It was home to the world's best-performing emerging stock market over 2009-2011, and Jakarta had just been restored to investment grade after 14 years by two rating agencies.
The glow faded fast. Now, investors are shying away from its bonds and shares as the case for piling more money into Southeast Asia's biggest and fastest-growing economy has weakened. Indonesia still has plenty of positives. Growth held up better than that of peers when Europe's debt crisis intensified. A bounty of natural resources and an expanding middle class provide the foundation for continued growth. But recently, confusion over economic policy has chased foreign money away. Foreign investors have cut their holdings of government bonds on fears of inflation from a potential 33 percent hike in local fuel prices. Some economists have questioned the wisdom of a series of interest rate cuts since late last year.
This means there will be extra attention on a central bank policy meeting on Thursday. It comes two days after a bond auction drew a weak response, resulting in sales of about one-third of what the government targeted. That was in stark contrast to the last two auctions, which drew robust demand. All 14 analysts polled by Reuters believe Bank Indonesia (BI) will hold its benchmark overnight rate at its record low 5.75 percent.
There have been widely diverging views on BI's strategy. On February 20, Citigroup said it expected more rate cuts, based on indications from BI that inflation would remain under control. Nomura had forecast a 25 basis point cut on Thursday, but on Tuesday changed to hold and said it expects BI to soon "shift its policy bias from supporting growth to controlling potential second-round effects from the inflation shock."
In January last year, annual inflation hit a 21-month high of 7 percent. That led some funds to exit, and spurred BI to make its only rate increase in 2011, by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent. The inflation rate has been falling, and last month was a 22-month low of 3.6 percent. With inflation in check and worries growing about Europe denting growth, BI cut its rate 75 bps in late 2011 and another 25 bps in February. In the past month, high oil prices have revived inflation concerns. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has said the government must cut its spending on subsidising local oil prices, and in late February, submitted two options to Parliament for putting in rises.
The government has raised its 2012 inflation forecast to 7 percent from 5.3 percent, according to a document seen by Reuters on Wednesday. Higher inflation threatens to hit domestic consumption - the cornerstone around which most Indonesia-focused portfolios are constructed. That's why some funds feel relative valuations for Indonesian stocks versus the rest of Southeast Asia and other emerging markets are looking rich.
"People see that valuations are already expensive amid uncertainties of expectations on the fuel price hike. We have reduced long positions," said Herbie Mohede, a fund manager in Jakarta at PT Samuel Aset Manajemen, which manages about $130 million in Indonesian stocks and bonds.
Indonesia grew 6.5 percent in 2011, the fastest in 15 years. But if inflation this year is 7 percent, that would top growth, seen at 6.1 percent in a Reuters poll. "We expect growth to remain in trend, although a moderation to possibly below 6 percent is already due to happen because of the extended slowdown in the global economy," said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist at OCBC in Singapore.
When fund managers returned to emerging markets following the post-Lehman Brothers shakeout, Indonesia found itself front-and-centre on their screens. In 2010, the Jakarta stock market's benchmark soared 46 percent. Good economic fundamentals contributed to the upgrades of Indonesia's sovereign debt, on junk status since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, by Fitch Ratings in December and Moody's Investors Service in January.
The stock exchange has seen foreign inflows of $183 million in the year up to March 2, a fraction of the $2.65 billion for all of 2011, according to Reuters data. Also, Indonesian equity funds did not see net inflows in the two weeks ending February 24 despite emerging markets as a group receiving solid flows over the period, according to J.P. Morgan. The index is up just 3 percent this year compared with the 10.3 percent rise in Asian stocks outside Japan. Southeast Asia's top performer this year has been the small Vietnam market, up 26 percent.