SINGAPORE: New York cocoa will fall to $1,344 per tonne over the next three months, as indicated by its wave pattern.
A long-term bull cycle that started at the Dec. 2000 low of $707 has completed at the March high of $3,775, and cocoa is riding on a strong downtrend towards $1,344, the presumed wave "B" trough.
Impulsive waves started to unfold from $3,248, a high touched in July, and the current downtrend will eventually develop five waves.
The rebound from the Dec. 12 low of $1,983 is labeled as a wave "4", likely to be capped at $2,387, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement on the wave "3" drop from $2,791 to $1,983.
The rebound seems to be triggered by an ascending trendline passing through the wave "B" trough. Strategically, a break below $1,983 is needed to confirm the resumption of the downtrend towards $1,344.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
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