Australian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 7 percent in 2011-12 to 2.8 million tonnes in line with a rise in production from canefields recovering from cyclone damage earlier this year, the government's commodities forecaster said.
The forecast is mostly unchanged from one made by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) in September, despite a downward revision of expections for the harvest. ABARES cut its forecast for sugar production in 2011/12 to 3.9 million tonnes, against a prediction of 4.2 million tonnes in a September.
That forecast is still above the 3.6 million tonnes produced in the last financial year, allowing for the jump in exports. In a normal year, Australia typically ranks as the world's third largest raw sugar exporter behind Brazil and the European Union.
Above-average rainfall hampered harvesting last season in the tropical eastern state of Queensland, home to most of Australia's canefields, while a cyclone damaged crops in the state's north in February. This year's harvest of stood-over cane started nearly a month early, helped by drier than normal weather in some key cane producing areas, according to ABARES.
Globally, ABARES predicts the surplus in sugar production in 2011-12 will inflate world closing stocks by 7.2 million tonnes to 64.3 million tonnes. This would increase the stocks-to-use ratio from 35 per cent to 38 percent in 2011-12, it said.
India is forecast to export around 3.5 million tonnes of sugar in 2011-12, based on current stocks and the forecast of 2011-12 sugar production, after being a large net importer of sugar in 2009-10 and early 2010-11 A bumper harvest in the Russian Federation in 2011-12 implies that Russian sugar imports will decline by 2 million tonnes in the year, to a forecast 0.7 million tonnes, according to ABARES.
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