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Rain over the last 10 days in Argentina's central grains-growing area revitalised parched wheat fields and helped farmers with their 2011/12 corn sowing, but dry weather could return, a forecaster said on Monday. Argentina is the world's No 2 corn supplier after the United States, producing a record 22.9 million tonnes in the 2010/11 season, government data shows.
This season got off to a rough start as planting was slowed by dry soils, but days of heavy rainfall across the Pampas grasslands have allowed farmers to push ahead with planting. "Water reserves are in good shape in all of the eastern Pampas, they're in adequate shape in the central part and there are still some areas that have a moisture deficit in the western part," said Jose Luis Aiello, head of the Applied Climatology Consultancy in Buenos Aires province.
"The rains were good for the areas that had big moisture deficits, but conditions are still not optimal," Aiello said. Aiello said he expected moderate rains on Tuesday and Wednesday in the south of Cordoba province, southern parts of Santa Fe province and in the north of La Pampa province. However, he said the showers do not mean the country is safe this season from the La Nina weather phenomenon, which tends to cause dryness in Argentina. He said there could be another dry spell late this year and early in 2012.
"The game will be played in December and January," Aiello said. That might prove problematic for the country's soybeans, which farmers will start planting later this month. Argentina is the world's No 3 soybean exporter and the top supplier of soymeal and soyoil.
"Crop yields are going to depend on La Nina's impact between December, January and February," he added, recommending that farmers sow corn and soybeans as late as possible to keep crops from flowering during the driest periods. Agriculture Secretary Lorenzo Basso estimated last month the corn crop would come in at a record of about 30 million tonnes, while the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates Argentina's 2011/12 crop at 27.5 million tonnes.
Argentina, a leading global wheat exporter and key supplier to neighbouring Brazil, forecasts lower 2011/12 wheat output of between 11 million and 13 million tonnes, compared with 14.7 million last season, because of earlier dry weather. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on Thursday, in its first estimate of the crop, said Argentina's 2011/12 wheat harvest could total at least 12.6 million tonnes.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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