The Australian dollar is forecast to recover from its recent heavy losses and regain parity in coming months, thanks to lofty domestic rates and a robust economy and despite fears of a systemic banking crisis and global recession. A Reuters poll of around 45 analysts showed the Australian dollar is seen steadily rising from 96 US cents to parity in six months.
The Aussie has been under heavy pressure since the escalation of Europe's debt crisis. It lost nearly 10 percent in September, its biggest monthly drop in three years since the days of the Lehman Brothers collapse. It last traded at $0.9748, having dipped to a one-year low of $0.9388 on Tuesday.
Earlier this week, Australia's central bank left its 4.75 percent cash rate unchanged but opened the door to a cut in interest rates as early as next month, saying there could be scope for stimulus if coming inflation figures proved benign.
Yet, analysts are optimistic the high-yielding Aussie will stage a quick recovery. A total of 24 respondents forecast the currency above parity in 12 months, with BNP Paribas the most bullish at a record high of $1.1800.
A survey of around 41 analysts showed a similar path for the commodity-sensitive New Zealand dollar, which has lost about 13 percent since hitting a 30-year peak of $0.8842 in August.
The currency is seen gradually strengthening from its current levels of around $0.7600 to $0.8000 cents in a year. As the local economy is recovering from a massive earthquake earlier in the year, the rise largely reflects market expectations of a rate hike to restrain inflation.
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