Forecasting the future

Forecasting is a perilous and thankless exercise. Conceptually it hinges upon analysis of historic trends which when modified for current variations form the basis for projecting the future. While financial analysts also have the luxury of the Excel sheet where a click and swing of the mouse is synonymous with Abracadabra, the results continue to fall short of expectations.
Consider that our annual national budget never came even near to predicting the actual results. Just as truth is relative so are assumptions. Conflict is innate within humans; even on an individual level the physical being struggles with digesting what is good for the soul. Accordingly, while a consensus on historical facts is easier to achieve, opinions rarely merge on the interpretation and causes of these very same facts. "It should be known that history is a discipline that has a great number of approaches"
Ibn Khalduin of Tunis. Differing views on history result in numerous versions of the future. Notwithstanding, even if technology eventually provides a mechanism to scientifically record history and then build unchallengeable assumptions there from, forecasts will continue to fish in the dark. Time has yet to pass judgement on whether history repeats itself, 3000 years is too short a period to conclude! "The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes" Mark Twain.
Economists cherish the Latin phrase Ceteris Paribus when postulating theories, which translated states,"all other things being equal or held constant". All else is never constant. "Telling the future by looking at the past assumes that conditions remain constant. This is like driving a car by looking in the rear-view mirror" Herb Brody.
Foretelling is not the domain of mere mortals. While the efforts of the brave souls who strive to accomplish the impossible are commendable, they are destined to fail for eternity.
If history, the basis for forecasting, is imaginative, may not repeat itself and even if it does, it will not be exact, than why bother at all? Well for one a lot of futurologists and a few colleagues will lose their jobs. On a serious note, imagine standing on a railway track and hearing the shrill whistle of an approaching train, you can't see it but will you just close your ears and obstinately continue to hold your ground? Consequent to actions taken, what occurred in history was inevitable, the way forward remains fluid to a great deal. "The best way to predict the future is to create it" Peter Drucker.
Forecasting is the shrill whistle of an approaching train which allows us to plan our response. Investment decisions world-wide are based on financial projections and feasibilities. The very word, feasibility, pre-supposes that a project is feasible but there are no guarantees attached. Diligently performing controllable motions will not ensure success if it is so destined. Nonetheless, forecasting facilitates in managing scarce resource and mitigating identified risks, the human factor. Consequently, imaginative forecasting entails multiple and comprehensive responses.
For example, George Friedman in his book "The next 100 years" predicts the Third World War in 2050. What boggles the mind is not the perceived star wars, thanks to Hollywood, but the composition of the coalition forces against the only super power. Nope it is neither Russia, nor China nor Germany for that matter; remarkably the key members include Japan and Turkey! No surprises, America wins and in this particular scenario will continue to be the only super power at the end of 100 years.
Disappointingly for our collective egos, Pakistan merits a cursory reference and the author does not believe that the Islamic world as a whole will have a dominant role in the next 100 years due to their inability to unite. It is a very rude awakening that there are people who don't believe Pakistan is and will continue to be the epic centre of the World.
Long-term strategic scenario analysis and planning, have always been key disciplines in military services. In comparison, time horizon for the political machinery rarely exceeds five years. However, globalisation in the information age has made Ceteris Paribus redundant universally. Ever changing economic realities repeatedly challenge national fortunes. Historically even, resources were necessary to wage successful military campaigns and ambitions of physical occupation had their origin in wealth accumulation. In substance nothing has changed, except that critical battles toady are firstly fought on the economic front by necessity rather than choice.
Precisely for this reason, Friedman's predictions invariably have an economic undercurrent. He believes that economic stress will internally weaken China and Japan will be driven to hostility in pursuit of resources. Right or wrong is not the issue, point is whether there is a need for long-term forecasting or annual budgets and five year plans sufficiently meet the requirements.
Consider, if the current trends suggest that Pakistan's population will double in the next three decades, will our resources be sufficient to feed them. By 2050 if the world's population crosses 9 billion staple food will become dearer and prices will sky rocket. The risk is that with stagnant agricultural produce and continuing financial constraints most of the population can face starvation. The mitigating strategy is to increase land under cultivation and simultaneously enhance yield.
Certain analysts already believe that water will surpass oil as the key resource in the coming decades. Notwithstanding the importance of building reservoirs, there is also current need to review the utilisation of scarce land resource. Agriculturists are the right people to advice on the appropriate mix for crop production. Would it be better, in the long-term, to grow wheat or focus on a more lucrative crop and what are the steps necessary for transiting resources?
With unemployment rampant today, how will the job market absorb twice as much demand in the future? If our economic growth is not sufficient to deliver, we need to target countries ideal for exporting human resource and identify the vocations they need. Even today, remittances have played a significant role in balancing our trade deficit. The mitigating strategy is to manoeuvre the educational budget from primary education towards a discipline which compliments this objective.
Learning from history, the industrial revolution was the catalyst for west's domination of the world during the last couple of centuries. History may not repeat itself in favour of the east, but a forecast that manufacturing is necessary for a viable economy is probably palatable. A strategy designed to nudge public and private investment in relevant sectors may be appropriate under this scenario.
Arguably short-term planning and unimaginative forecasting may have been the cause of the current energy crisis. The implications are severe. Quality of life aside, the adverse impact on commercial activity will most likely cripple economic growth. Short-term solutions can provide temporary relief however, population growth entails a robust demand forecast and resource management in the coming century.
The perception of time horizon needs to be revisited. The Planning Commission has already developed a framework for economic growth. Interactive debate and imaginative scenario analysis contribute immensely to such an effort. At the end of the day, however, forecasts are an exercise in futility if they remain delegated to files and cabinets. Our governments deliberately need to plan for a horizon beyond the next election, in fact way forward in the future to ensure sustainability. Futurologists probably need to be engaged for developing the universe of likely or improbable scenarios, which should culminate in a responsive plan actively implemented. Consideration of multiple future scenarios may direct our collective efforts towards pertinent action, who knows we may be the nation to look towards in future.