Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 9.2% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in July 2026, as shown by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Monday.
The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 11.1% in June. The CPI stood at 4.1% in July 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.2% in July 2026 as compared to a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month and an increase of 2.9% in July 2025.
Urban CPI inflation increased by 8.7% on a year-on-year basis in July 2026 as compared to an increase of 11.2% in the previous month and an increase of 4.4% in July 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.2% in July 2026 as compared to a decrease of 0.5% in the previous month and an increase of 3.4% in July 2025.
Rural CPI inflation increased by 9.9% on a year-on-year basis in July 2026 as compared to an increase of 10.9% in the previous month and an increase of 3.5% observed in July 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.2% in July 2026 as compared with no change in the previous month and an increase of 2.2% in July 2025.
Government expectations
In its latest monthly outlook, the Finance Division has sounded the alarm over persistent inflation by projecting CPI at 9-10% in July 2026 amid rising global oil prices, as Pakistan’s economy faced a 33.9% plunge in foreign direct investment, declining from $2.48 billion in 2024-25 to $1.64 billion in the last fiscal year.
Days ago, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its first meeting in the fiscal year 2026-27, decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11.5%.
In a press briefing, the SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad expected CPI inflation to decline in July.
“We expect the CPI to clock in at the upper band of our target range of 5-7% by the end of this fiscal year,” said Ahmad.
Analysts expectations
Earlier, analysts expected Pakistan’s headline inflation to return to single digits in July, but noted that the slowdown was largely due to favourable base effects while underlying price pressures remain.
Ismail Iqbal Securities expected headline inflation at 9.3% YoY, saying the return to single digits is “largely base-driven rather than a genuine easing in momentum.”
Separately, JS Global expected headline CPI at 9.1% YoY in July.
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