Ivory Coast and Ghana 2011-12 cocoa production is expected to fall 15 percent on the year, helping switch the global market into a deficit of over 100,000 tonnes, international trade house Armajaro Trading Limited said on Wednesday. Ideal weather conditions in West Africa led to a bumper crop in 2010/11 and Armajaro expects the coming 2011/12 crop to revert to lower production.
"The weather is not as good. The pod counts now don't look as good as they did this time last year," William Venables, head of cocoa at Armajaro said. "We've gone over 300,000 tonnes now in our surplus for 2010/11, but at the same time our deficit is creeping higher for 2011/12." Venables declined to give production forecasts for Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together produce more than half of the world's cocoa.
Earlier this month, commodities broker Marex Spectron estimated 2011/12 Ivory Coast production falling about 9 percent to 1.35 million tonnes, from 1.48 million tonnes the previous crop year. It also saw Ghana production falling about 11 percent on the year to 805,000 tonnes from 905,000.
"We're not looking at any major issues, we're looking for normalisation of the crop. The crop number will be falling back into line with the previous 3 or 4 years in Ivory Coast which was showing a flattish trend," Venables said. Armajaro, one of the world's top buyers of cocoa beans, in July conducted its first Ivory Coast pod count since months of unrest following a disputed presidential election brought the country's cocoa industry to a standstill earlier this year. Assessing pods on cocoa trees is the primary forecasting tool for cocoa production. The political turmoil and consequent security concerns in Ivory Coast prevented pod counting activities for several months.
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