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European Union leaders are poised to hold an emergency summit after finance ministers acknowledged for the first time that some form of Greek default may be needed to cut Athens' debts and stop contagion to Italy and Spain. "There will be an extra summit this Friday," a senior eurozone diplomat told Reuters, suggesting policymakers have been seized with a new sense of urgency after markets started targeting Italian assets.
A French government source said Paris was in favour, although the timing was not yet fixed, and in Spain, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said he had not ruled out a meeting. Earlier, Germany's finance minister had said a second Greek rescue package could wait until September after eurozone finance ministers effectively accepted that private creditor involvement meant a selective debt default was likely, despite the European Central Bank's vehement opposition to such a move.
"We have managed to break the knot, a very difficult knot," Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager told reporters. Asked about whether a selective default was now likely, he replied: "It is not excluded any more. Obviously the European Central Bank has stated in the statement that it did stick to its position, but the 17 (euro zone) ministers did not exclude it any more so we have more options, a broader scope."
Participants said a buy-back of Greek debt on the secondary market and a German proposal for a bond swap for longer maturities were under consideration after a complex French plan to roll over bonds made no headway. Both would likely be regarded by ratings agencies as a default, or at best a selective default, which although it would not necessarily cover all Greek debt and could be lifted quickly, would have major repercussions for financial markets. The Institute of International Finance, the lobby group representing private creditors, said the EU and IMF needed to deliver a plan for Greece, including a debt buyback, within days to avoid markets "spinning out of control".
The increased likelihood of some form of default, and a lukewarm response from the IMF, hit European bank stocks and debt markets and propelled the euro sharply lower against the dollar although markets settled later. Ten-year bond yields in Italy, the eurozone's third-largest economy, shot above six percent for the first time since 1997 but then subsided to around 5.7 percent, still at a level which bankers say will put heavy pressure on finances.
Borrowing costs at an Italian 12-month bill sale surged to their highest since the 2008 financial crisis, putting a Thursday bond auction firmly in focus. There is now acute concern about contagion to Italy, where political tensions between Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti have exacerbated concerns, and to Spain, the eurozone's fourth largest economy.
In Rome, Berlusconi tried to calm fears Italy could be swept into full-scale crisis, pledging to accelerate debt-cutting measures and run a primary surplus this year. Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi and a former UK central banker, said there was a clear spread beyond Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the three nations bailed out so far. Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and others want the private sector to provide at least 30 billion euros in a new package for Greece that could total 110 billion euros.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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