Vietnam has lowered the annual coffee export forecast for calendar 2011 by 3 percent to 1.26 million tonnes, or 21 million bags, based on a low level of stocks in the country, the agriculture ministry said on Monday. The lower projection would not help lift coffee prices much as traders have forecast the Southeast Asian nation's output from its 2011/2012 harvest to rise to 23-24 million bags, from 21-22 million bags in the current season.
The lower export forecast was "due to changes in domestic supply and export prices on global markets," the ministry said in a report. It had previously forecast the country to ship 1.3 million tonnes of coffee this year. The ministry's forecasts are based on the calendar year ending December, while the coffee crop year lasts between October and September in Vietnam, the world's second-largest producer after Brazil. "At present due to a small and scattered volume of coffee in stock of around 100,000 tonnes, the sentiment of farmers in the Central Highlands is to hold back and wait for prices to rise higher," the ministry's report said.
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