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Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan will start a third term of one-party rule strengthened by Sunday's decisive election victory but also burdened by the need for consensus to push ahead with plans for a new constitution. Erdogan will have to focus first on a pressing foreign policy issue right on his borders: unrest in neighbouring Syria has led to nearly 7,000 Syrian fleeing to Turkey to escape a brutal crackdown by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, with more coming every day.
But analysts said Erdogan also must find ways to revive a stalled bid for membership of the European Union and break down French and German reluctance to let Turkey in. Erdogan, whose AK Party has transformed Muslim Turkey into one of the world's fastest-growing economies and ended a cycle of military coups, won 49.9 percent of the vote, or 326 seats, in Sunday's parliamentary election.
The vote was AK's biggest electoral tally since it first came to power in 2002 but the party failed to win the 330 seats it needed to call a referendum to recast the constitution, written almost 30 years ago during a period of military rule. Financial markets were cheered on Monday as investors saw the mixed result forcing the AK Party to compromise with others to make the constitutional change. The Turkish lira strengthened against the dollar and bonds also gained.
"The new constitution requires consensus and dialogue with other parties and the society at large," Cengiz Aktar, a professor at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University, told Reuters. "We will see if Erdogan is ready for these with his majority or will he go his own way and impose his own views on Turkey - in which case we will have difficult times."
Turkish newspapers lauded his success. "Turkey loves him", "The master of the ballot box", said front page headlines next to pictures of a smiling Erdogan waving to cheering supporters outside party headquarters. Critics fear Erdogan, who has a reputation for being intolerant of criticism, might use the victory to cement power, limit freedoms and persecute opponents. In a victory speech before thousands of flag-waving supporters in the capital Ankara on Sunday night, he pledged "humility" and said he would work with rivals. "People gave us a message to build the new constitution through consensus and negotiation. We will discuss the new constitution with opposition parties. This new constitution will meet peace and justice demands."
The new leader of the secularist opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which garnered its best result in more than 30 years with 25.9 percent of the vote, warned Erdogan that he would be watching his movements closely. "We wish all success to AKP, but they must remember there's a stronger main opposition party now," Kemal Kilicdaroglu said. Turkey and Erdogan's party are often are cited as models for supporters of democracy living through the "Arab Spring" series of anti-authoritarian protests in parts of the Middle East and North Africa.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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