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NEW YORK: The US Treasury yield curve flattened to its lowest in a decade on Tuesday as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting, with no major economic releases due this week and trading subdued before the US Thanksgiving holiday.

The yield curve has flattened as investors price in the expectation that the Fed will continue to raise rates while the US Treasury is also seen increasing debt issuance in short- and intermediate-dated maturities, but delay large increases at the back end.

At the same time low inflation and global demand for yield has supported longer-dated debt.

"What you are generally seeing is that any time the curve steepens people think it's an opportunity to get into flatteners again," said Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale in New York. "It's been one consistent trade that's worked through 2017."

Investors are seen as reluctant to take the other side of the trade this week as volumes decline and with no major catalysts to change direction ahead of the holiday on Thursday.

Benchmark 10-year notes were last up 4/32 in price to yield 2.36 percent, down from 2.37 percent on Monday.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes flattened to 59 basis points, the lowest since late 2007.

The Fed's meeting minutes due to be released on Wednesday will be evaluated for any new indications that a rate hike is likely in December.

The US central bank kept interest rates unchanged when it concluded its two-day meeting on Nov. 1 and pointed to solid US economic growth and a strengthening labor market while playing down the impact of recent hurricanes.

Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a 92 percent chance of a December rate hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

 

Copyright Reuters, 2017