Think controlling population

Ever since the census preliminary results are out; every stakeholder is lobbing for higher share of population in their respective district, city and province. But no one has really raised eyebrows on the country’s population growth.

Yes, there are fiscal and constitutional implications of higher population in respective areas. But as a nation, should that be an issue? Should the focus not be on how to curtail one of the world’s fastest growing populations? What about the measures taken and programmes ran after 1998 to curtail population growth? Is there any healthy debate on the fact the rising population is the prime reason for deteriorating social indicators? Are we promoting high growth rate?

Globally, population growth is inversely related to poverty and it also seems to hold true in Pakistan. The growth rate is highest in Balochistan (3.4%) followed by KPK (2.9%) and these two provinces are more backward and war torn than Sindh (2.4%) and Punjab (2.1%). This implies that those who have more awareness of human and social rights tend to have fewer children.

The more disturbing anecdote is that the poor families tend to have more kids than middle and especially upper middle class. An average upper middle class family in urban centers has a family of poor to serve while the upper class has battery of support staff at their disposal. Do we have similar characteristics in developed nations? Of course not!

There is surely an elite capture in Pakistan with quality of education and health only privy to those who can afford it. Kids of poor are excluded from the white collar job market and have no access to capital, if by chance; someone from vulnerable population has an innovative business idea.

Thus, there is no incentive for elite who is forming polices, to curtail the population growth. But this approach is detrimental for the socioeconomic progression of the country. There has to be a national consensus on controlling population growth. The approach of claiming more population shows how serious are the efforts to curtail population growth.

Billions of rupees have been spent in the past two decades by hosts of international and local donors on population control, but all seem to have been in vain. The population grew at an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent between 1998-2017 versus 2.7 percent during 1981-98 and 2.9 percent during 1972-81. Yes the growth rate is slightly tapering off but the base is becoming too big to elude any benefit from marginal slowdown.

The mantra of controlling population has to go beyond the usage of contraceptive. The need is to create awareness and recognition of small family units and that comes with education and prosperity. Poor families in Pakistan generally do not think of educating the kids, rather they see them as helping hands.

At a national level, the need is to incentivize curtailing population. Unfortunately, the debate is around who is larger with an eye on fiscal resources and seats in parliament. BR Research does not support parliament seats’ freezing argument; but there has to be an incentive structure to promote curtailing population growth.