No major reshuffling in cabinet is in offing. Shahbaz might not leave Punjab while Ishaq Dar is likely to stick to the Finance Ministry. Only the interior minister might see a new face as Nisar might not be willing to work under anyone whose surname is not Sharif. That said, his name is making rounds for foreign ministry. Nisar’s perceived closeness to Pindi and foreign affairs do make a good combination.
The whole point is that PMLN does not trust anyone but the close confidant of top leadership, and they are left with a bunch of few who would be assuming key roles. It’s good to not change much of the ministries close to elections. But the question is what the ministers have done in their respective roles apart from defending Nawaz in the past few months.
It may not be wise to continue with Dar as he maybe witnessing NAB courts soon. Would he be able to judiciously run economic policies and face accountability courts simultaneously? How would he be negotiating with multilateral agencies and others for debt, if in a not-so-distant scenario of his name being on the ECL? Would the IMF and WB representatives come to Pakistan to meet him?
What is for sure is that as long as he is in charge, the sticky exchange rate policies and higher taxation burden on existing base would continue. Dar might bypass PM and would report directly to the elder Sharif. But that is not a good move, as having a finance minister under scrutiny by accountability court will make him weak and the message to lenders, donors and investors would be to refrain dealing with him. Would this not undermine the credit rating of the country and make it difficult to raise debt to keep foreign exchange reserves intact?
Why can PMLN not have someone else to assume the role. Sartaj Aziz could have been a better alternative, though he is aged, he enjoys good relationship with the leadership.
Rumor has it that Shahbaz might not leave Punjab. If that is the case, it’s a smart move. The continuation of development work in Punjab is the best bet for PMLN government to win elections. Since Punjab is too centralized and no decision is taken without the consent of Shahbaz, it would work well to have him continue. There is food of thought for Shahbaz to slowly decentralize the decision making in Punjab to pave way for him to move up the ladder.
No secret that Shahbaz wants to see his son Hamza to replace him in Punjab once he opts for center. But that might be a little too much control for the younger brother. The rift between the families is unfolding as well. The uncertainty prevails and the policy making might be put at the back burner.
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