IMF’s cautions

“After three years of reforms, Pakistan has strengthened its macroeconomic resilience and economic outlook, providing an opportunity to build on recent progress with structural reforms and set the economy on a higher growth path,” reads an excerpt from the IMF’s latest press release on completion of Article IV mission to Pakistan.

Some chest thumping from the government channels has followed, citing the IMF’s words as a revelation. No matter how encouraging the words are, they have been said earlier too, back in October 2016, at the completion of Pakistan’s program with the fund.  It is the undertone in the press release that warrants more attention, as the IMF seems to have carried a ‘warning’ tone over a number of matters.

The IMF, by the end of the program, had adopted a much lenient tone towards fiscal, energy and external sectors. Now that the program is done with, the IMF has clearly warned that a failure in implanting structural reforms and fiscal consolidation could affect the hard-earned stability gains.

The Fund has showed confidence in government’s ability to achieve the 5 percent GDP growth target, backed by recovering agriculture and rising investments related to everyone’s favorite, CPEC. It is encouraging to see the IMF did not have a change of heart at least when it came to Pakistan’s ability of achieving the GDP growth target – and that in itself, is an achievement of sorts.

And then comes the not-so-brighter side of affairs. The IMF now expects Pakistan’s current account deficit to reach 2.9 percent in FY17. This is a massive departure from its earlier held position of expecting current account deficit of 1.5 percent, back in October 2016.

Some may argue that the bulk of imports reflect increased capital goods, as also pointed out by the IMF. But, in all reality, CPEC related machinery imports are not yet fully reflected in the balance of payment numbers.  While the CPEC remains the cornerstone of Pakistan’s near future economic progress, it has thrown more questions than answers, and even the State Bank of Pakistan appears as puzzled as a deer caught in spotlight.

The IMF has also talked about exchange rate and the need to let the currency depreciate, to make exports more competitive, or even just, competitive. The chances of that happening though, anytime soon, or at all, appear slim, given the exchange rate fixation that the honorable Finance Minister has.

Talking of exchange rate fixation , Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, on the sidelines put the revenue shortfall of Rs100 billion on not passing the full impact of oil price increases to the end consumers. Firstly, the government, rightly passed on whatever it could to the consumer, and only faced some losses as volumes in some categories went down. Secondly, it again raises questions on ‘structural reforms’ in taxation, when the reliance on sales tax from petroleum remains high, and diversity seems non-existent.

So the glass may well be half full, as GDP target will likely be met and inflation’s will be beaten. But it may soon be half empty, if the structural reforms fail to take off from the papers.