US closures hit aluminium forecast

Global aluminium production has fallen slightly following high raw material and energy costs, while copper capacity and output has also dropped by less than one percent due to tight concentrate supply, according to Reuters Metal Production Database (MPD).
The MPD 2004 global aluminium output forecast was a modest 0.7 percent lower from the previous quarter's prediction as rises of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent in Oceania, Western and Eastern Europe partially offset falls in North America and Asia.
MPD's 2004 North American aluminium output from the first quarter fell by 2.67 percent, while Asian aluminium production fell by 0.8 percent.
Output in North America was hit by the closure of capacity at two aluminium smelters because of outdated technology and soaring alumina prices, while Asian production was affected by power shortages and tight alumina supply, especially in China.
On Thursday, traders said around 30,000 tonnes of Burnside alumina was sold between $420 and $430 a tonne on a spot tender. At the end of 2002 alumina was around $160 a tonne.
Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hit an 8-1/2 high on Friday of $1,831 a tonne, compared with about $1,608 at the end of last year.
The MPD product - available to users of Reuters 3000 Xtra using the URL http://mpd.session.rservices.com - details historical and predicted output and capacity for bauxite and copper mines, alumina refineries, aluminium and copper smelters and copper, zinc and nickel refineries between 1997 and 2007.
Background data on each mine or plant are also provided.
MPD uses information sourced by Reuters editorial bureaux across the globe, company news releases and results and consultation with industry experts.
ALUMINIUM OUTPUT CUTBACKS: At the end of 2003, Ormet Corp, which operates the 254,000 tonne per year Hannibal smelter in Ohio, said it would cut production by one third in order to take advantage of high alumina prices by selling the raw material from its Burnside refinery in Louisiana.
In January Alcan said it planned to close 90,000 tonnes per year of outdated Soderberg potlines at its Arvida smelter in Quebec.
The output prediction for Alcan 's Kitimat smelter in British Columbia was lowered during the quarter.
Angus MacMillan, minerals strategist at Prudential-Bache International observed that Ormet and Alcan 's decision to reduce capacity at their smelters affected overall regional output.
"The closure of potlines at Hannibal and Arvida was the most significant movement in the region this quarter," he said.
Asian aluminium was affected by regional power shortages and a rise in civic power demand during Chinese New Year. Power shortages combined with increased power fees and high alumina prices have led many aluminium smelters to operate below capacity or delay expansion plans.
As a result output figures for the Guizhou smelter have been downgraded. Additionally, both Qingtongxia and Yunnan smelters have delayed starting new capacity.
Chalco cut aluminium production at its Pingguo plant by more than one-third due to ongoing power shortages in the Guangxi region, while Lanzhou Aluminium closed 55,000 tonnes of capacity from February to carry out an upgrade project.
AFRICAN COPPER OUTPUT FALLS: Changes in global copper smelter and refinery output and capacity were marginal despite a fall in African production of 11.64 percent and capacity of 4.25 percent during the quarter.
The decline in Africa was largely due to downward revisions to Zambia's copper production forecast by the country's Central Bank, which saw 2004 refined output at 382,000 tonnes.
On a global scale, smelter and refined copper capacity and output forecasts were down by less than one percent in 2004 and up by less than 0.5 percent in 2005.
North American copper smelter output fell by 2.29 percent as a result of a work stoppage at Falconbridge Ltd's Sudbury, Ontario plant. For three weeks smelting operations at Falconbridge 's Sudbury plant were hit by a strike that ended on February 22.
In Asia, production was boosted by India's SwiL starting up its 70,000 t/yr Bharuch plant. It was expected to produce around 40,000 tonnes in 2004, with output reaching full capacity in 2005.
Birla Copper's expansion at its Dahej plant, also in India came on line in February, increasing smelting capacity from 150,000 t/yr to 250,000 t/yr. The company, a unit of Hindalco Industries Ltd said the expansion would take a year to come online.