Frank G. Wisner, a co-chairman of an independent task force on South Asia and a former US envoy to New Delhi has said that the United States is a very important player in the Pak-India rapprochement.
"I have nothing but praise for the way the administration has played its hand, that is, to keep our profile low, not to take credit for progress being made in the course of these talks, not to appear to be a negotiator or a mediator, but really (to act) behind the scenes nudging the two parties forward."
Wisner said this in an interview by Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor for Council on Foreign Relations.
And at the same, Wisner said the United States is working "quite consciously" to strengthen our relations with both New Delhi and Islamabad, so that both of them find an American offer of understanding "acceptable and constructive."
Asked of the chances for success this time, after manly failed efforts over the past, he said: "this is the most promising engagement between India and Pakistan in recent memory."
"While the two sides have been in talks on a variety of occasions in the past, notably after the wars that raged in the subcontinent, never in my judgment have the necessary conditions come together in quite the way that they are coming together now."
Asked as to what those conditions are, he said the first and most important condition is leadership. "You have two strong leaders with good bases in their countries and particularly strong constituencies in favour of taking a peace process as far forward as they can move it."
"In other words, for the first time, the two political clocks are ticking on approximately the same time. I have never noticed that, never experienced that before, in South Asia. Usually, you have one weak leader and one strong leader."
He said the very important second point is that the two leaders have set about to handle these talks and negotiations in a very sensitive and smart way. They have tried to make certain that not one side or the other appears to be getting an advantage.
"They've kept the press out of it so there was no temptation to score points one against the other. And they've made it work as well by building confidence, by engaging in measures that, actually demonstrate tangibly to Indians and Pakistanis that they can get things done.
Questioned like what, for example, he said: "they've reopened air links between the two countries, they've opened air links that they've not opened before that permit India, for example, to over-fly Pakistan directly on its international flights.
They've brought about a cease-fire. While there have been other cease-fires, this time the cease-fire also affects the particularly violent Siachen Glacier area (in the Himalayas).
They have opened up land routes and they are talking now for the first time in history of a land route between the capital of Indian Kashmir in Srinagar and the Pakistani side in Muzaffarabad."
"They moved more strongly to open up trade links at the Saarc (South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation) summit.
The South Asian trade concessions will make much more trade possible between India and Pakistan than has ever been the case. So they've done real things and they have real things in their mind, all of this has come together to create both a way of doing business and some confidence around it that is pretty unique."
Frank G. Wisner was ambassador to India in the Clinton administration, and is the vice chairman, external affairs, at American International Group. Inc.
Asked is there a way forward on Kashmir, Wisner said "I think there is."
"I don't think it will come about quickly or easily. I think the Kashmir problem is best dealt with by not trying to resolve the issue of sovereignty, certainly not for some time and until you could build a lot more confidence between the two sides.
There are lots of other issues related to Kashmir that can fundamentally change the situation and make it possible for India and Pakistan to look at new ground, new ways of looking at the problem."
"There is the military confrontation of the high Himalayas in the Siachen Glacier. That could be settled. You can imagine, as well, the Indian and Pakistani armies pulling back from the borders, letting the police patrol the Line of Control that separates the two Kashmirs."
"You can imagine some agreements on trade that permit the two sides in Kashmir to reunite a bit economically.
Movement-of-people issues could be resolved, allowing people on the two sides of the border to travel and visit one another.
In other words, to normalise life. In the context of a fundamentally more normalised, quieter, more peaceful situation, there may be some opportunity to find ways of dealing with the sovereignty question, sharing it perhaps. But the outcome will only work if three critical points are kept in mind.
The first is: there can be no solution through the use of violence. The second: there could be no solution if one side appears to win and the other side appears to lose. And third: there can be no solution to Kashmir if the Kashmiris themselves are not consulted and made part of the settlement."
Asked as to what are the broader Pakistan-US interests, he said: "Pakistan is one of the largest nations in the Islamic world. It has been a center for intellectual life and activity.
Much of the modern radicalism that Islam knows was intellectually born in Pakistan. Pakistan's reach touches both the Middle East and Central' Asia.
The stability of that country affects the peace in South Asia, particularly since the nuclear reality appeared on the South Asian horizon."
"Pakistan's stability, her moderation, her orientation and ties toward the United States and the West are a major, major question for the United States. It is one of the toughest challenges in American foreign policy because there are a lot of negative things.
There is the nuclear proliferation issue, there is the terrorism question, there is the troubled relationship and violence and cross-border terror with India. All of these issues have pulled at the stability of US-Pakistani ties. Keeping balance is tough, but it is very important."
Asked was outsourcing a real impediment to US-Indian relations, Wisner said "first of all, about what's happened in India is absolutely true. Since the 1990s, India has performed economically among the top five or six countries in the world on a sustained basis."
This year, India will achieve record rates of growth, 8 percent gross domestic product, and it looks like it will be carried forward a bit, certainly through the next couple of years, "as far forward as I'm prepared to look."
"One of the secrets of the Indian success story has been India's huge intellectual capital and the way that has been deployed, notably in information technology, but (also) moving into biotech and other very modern things, taking advantage of India's higher education institutions, which have sent many, many people to this country and helped create Silicon Valley. They are very active in our financial services sector."
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