MANILA: The Philippines and its largest Muslim separatist group are set to discuss a political formula to end a long-running insurgency, but a rogue guerrilla leader could hijack the peace negotiations in Kuala Lumpur just as they seem to have gained new momentum.
A secret meeting in Tokyo hotel on Aug. 4 between President Benigno Aquino and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leader Murad Ebrahim produced an agreement to accelerate the peace process.
But the following week a breakaway group of separatists who oppose the peace process attacked MILF forces on Mindanao, showing deep divisions among the rebels that would leave doubts as to whether a peace deal could be implemented.
Manila and the MILF have been negotiating since 1997 to end the rebellion that has hobbled development in the poor but resource-rich south. The conflict, which dates back to the 1960s, has killed 120,000 people and displaced 2 million.
The next round of talks will be in Kuala Lumpur from Monday to Wednesday, and the government is expected to present its response to the MILF's demand for a sub-state.
"If the government's political formula would cover at least 50 per cent of our position, that could be a very good starting point for any substantive talks to move forward," Mohagher Iqbal, the MILF' chief negotiator, told Reuters.
"We're now at the most crucial phase of our negotiations."
However, analysts say the talks could be sidetracked by the government's concerns over the activities of rogue commander Ustadz Ameril Umbra Kato.
Kato broke away late last year to continue fighting for an independent Islamic state in the south of the mostly Roman Catholic country, but the MILF had maintained it was an internal matter and they could bring him back into the fold.
"Kato's defection will likely overshadow the peace talks," said Mars Buan, an analyst at security consultancy firm Pacific Strategies and Assessments.
"Kato's move doesn't simply mean more violence in Mindanao. More importantly, it is indicative of the deep fractures within the MILF that will expectedly complicate the peace talks."
The MILF itself is a breakaway from Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), splitting in 1978 because it disagreed with a deal the MNLF had stuck with dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
Marvic Leonen, head of the government's peace panel, said the government is ready with its proposal but wants a "serious" discussion on how to deal with Kato.
"Kato is becoming a big problem and we wanted some answers from the MILF," Leonen told Reuters, although he said the issue would not overshadow the main agenda on finding a mutually acceptable political deal.
Copyright Reuters, 2011
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