SYDNEY/WELLINGTON: The Australian dollar tumbled to four-year lows on Wednesday after a surprisingly soft reading on economic growth prompted markets to raise the chance of an interest rate cut next year.
The Australian dollar slumped two-thirds of a cent to $0.8392, its weakest since mid-2010. It was last at $0.8403, having shed more than 3 percent in a month. Charts were bearish with 5-, 10 and 20-day moving averages pointing south. Support was found at $0.8315.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in the third quarter, less than half what analysts expected and the slowest since early 2013.
Interbank futures jumped to imply a 72 percent probability of a rate cut by mid-2015, having shown almost no chance of a move as recently as a month ago.
Australian government bond futures leapt, with the three-year bond contract up 6 ticks at 97.630, near two-year highs. The 10-year contract added 2.5 ticks to 96.890 in a bullish steepening of the curve. Yet, for some analysts, the market is still not properly pricing the chance of a rate cut.
"The curve is too flat and that is because two-year yields are too high," said Matthew Johnson, a debt strategist at UBS. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reiterated its steady outlook for policy and cautioned that a further fall in the Aussie would be needed to keep the economy above water.
The New Zealand dollar was down at $0.7793, having been hit by a fall in global dairy prices, New Zealand's biggest export earner, to a five-year low.
A halving in the price of dairy products so far this year is likely to prompt Fonterra, the world's largest dairy exporter, to further cut the price it pays farmers.
Fonterra will update its milk payout price next week, and a further cut from NZ$5.30 ($4.13) per kilogram of milk solids would weigh on exports and national income.
"Once Fonterra downgrades its payout to below NZ$5.00 ... that's an instigator for the kiwi to push lower," BNZ currency strategist Raiko Shareef said.
New Zealand government bonds slipped, pushing yields 3 basis points higher at the long end.
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