Change, or perhaps no change

Not everybody can create ripples in the entire government set-up by having as few as seven seats in a house of 342. But then, not everybody is Maulana Fazul-ur-Rehman either.
The JUI(F)s decision to leave the coalition government and sit on the opposition benches has created a panic-like situation amongst the political parties and the phone lines from London to Karachi to Islamabad have heated up.
Never before had the current PPP coalition government faced such pressures despite facing criticism from its coalition partners on various issues. It is Maulanas move that has stunned everyone, as, going by common perception, he was the least likely man to quit the government especially when his party enjoyed enough ministries in the federal government despite very few seats.
So the obvious question circling in the Islamabads chilly winds is whether the opposition has enough strength or will to topple the government over. It is anybodys guess at this moment as a frenzy of meetings and phone calls amongst the politicians has left the political analysts guessing the likely outcome.
"I don see the government being toppled over despite the serious challenges that it faces on the political front. The PML(N) will not come to its rescue if a no-confidence motion is tabled, but it largely depends on what MQM decides in the coming days. I think the government will sail through it just like it did on previous occasions," said Ayaz Amir, a leading political analyst and a prominent PML(N) MNA, speaking to BR Research.
The MQM has demanded a reply from the government with respect to Zulfiqar Mirzas recent remarks. But the MQM and the PPP have a history of such spats in the not-so-distant past, which makes many believe that normalcy will soon be restored and MQM will be able to bargain on the local elections after a possible intervention by Rehman Malik or the President himself.
Another reason why MQM might stick to the coalition, despite its differences is that it does not have the telling vote in the set up. That honour rests with the PML(Q), the two factions of which hold the key in case the MQM decides to have had enough.
"The reason why MQM may continue to be a part of the coalition is because they are not sure of what PPML(Q) will do. They do not want to create the vacuum for PML(Q) in the government despite pressure from their workers. PML(N) might also not want to be a part of removing the government from the stage, they have waited for three years, they will wait for another two as they are certain it is their turn the next time round," a renowned journalist and TV anchor told BR Research on the condition of anonymity.So why did the JUI(F) leave the government, one may ask. It seems that reviving the defunct MMA is on the agenda to become a stronger force and to come back with larger numbers whenever the time comes. Everything so far points in the direction that the MMA will soon be revived. That is what probably caused the JUI(F) to take the bitter pill of stepping out of the government.
What will eventually happen is plain guesswork. But there surely will be new coalitions and possible mergers in the offing. But the PPP in the most likely scenario seems safe for now as all the opposition parties have different agendas which plays in the governments favour.