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Markets

Rouble hovers near 30-month highs in thin trade

Published Updated

RoubleMOSCOW: The rouble opened the week unchanged against the dollar, with thin trade expected throughout the session as most European markets remained closed for the Easter holiday.

The rouble traded at 27.99 against the greenback at 0705 GMT, holding close to 30-month highs reached last week as the dollar remained broadly weak.

The Russian currency was also broadly stable against the euro, at 40.80, and against the dollar-euro basket to 33.75.

Traders expect activity to pick up later in the week as European markets reopen on Tuesday, follow by a slew of international news and data, with the Federal Reserve to unveil its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

"The week can be quite volatile and, taking into consideration the overselling of the dollar, a certain rollback of prices and a correction can be expected," analysts at Globex bank in Moscow wrote.

They see the rouble sliding possibly 0.6 percent as a result to 28.20 per dollar later in the week.

However, a lot will depend on its main driver -- oil prices. On Monday, Brent crude futures rose above $124 per barrel on fears that oil supplies may be disrupted due to the escalating unrest in Syria and Yemen.

Traders will be also watching for any follow up to last week's order from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for monetary officials to talk to the exporters who had complained about the strong rouble hurting their business.

"The main issue for the Russian authorities is where to position the rouble," Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib in Moscow wrote in a note.

"The weakening dollar and strengthening euro is the wrong combination for Russia. Most exports are priced in dollars while imports are mainly priced in euros. The stronger euro is therefore an inflation driver."

The rouble has firmed more than 8 percent against the dollar since the start of the year, but has weakened 0.7 percent against the euro.

On Friday, Russia's central bank holds its monthly rate decision meeting, juggling between combating inflation, spurring economic growth and taming the rouble's appreciation.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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