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Markets

Rouble firms from 3-yr lows, stocks up

Published Updated

 MOSCOW: The rouble firmed on Tuesday, extending an overnight recovery and heading further away from three-year lows on the back of central bank intervention and more stable oil prices, which also propped up Russian shares.

By 0730 GMT, the rouble firmed 0.3 percent to 33.36 against the dollar in morning trade.

On Monday it reached a new three-year low of 34.19 per dollar following a slump in Brent crude prices to below $100 a barrel, but after oil prices had stabilised the rouble started to rally and recorded its first intraday rise in two weeks thanks to profit taking.

"Levels of 32.80-33.00 roubles per dollar look reasonable with current oil prices while levels of 34.0 look inadequate," said Pyotr Neymishev, a dealer at Otkritie bank.

Versus the euro, the rouble strengthened one percent to 41.52 and had added 0.6 percent to 37.04 against the euro-dollar basket, used by the central bank to monitor the currency market.

The rouble also got a boost after Central Bank Chairman Sergei Ignatyev said over the weekend that the situation was under control, referring to a 15-percent slump in the rouble versus the dollar in May, analysts at Raiffeisen Bank said in a note.

Ignatyev also said that the central bank was ready to step up interventions if needed to protect the rouble from excessive weakness. 

The rouble now remains in the range of 35.65-38.15 roubles per basket where the central bank intervenes by selling a few dozen to several hundred million dollars a day in order to limit the rouble's losses.

Stabilisition on the forex market helped Russian shares to regain ground, with the dollar-based RTS index climbing 0.3 percent to 1,422.0 points and the rouble-traded MICEX index rising 0.2 percent to 1,308.6 points.

"After such a rapid fall, a few days without any negative information is enough to be a reason for a technical rebound. But for a serious U-turn really strong catalysts are needed," said Mikhail Korolyuk, head of investment at Solid brokerage.

"Now everything depends not on numbers on graphs but on news flow," he said.

This week, market players are waiting for news from the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, betting on more signs that the central banks will adopt more accommodative policy.

Until then the market will have "neutral mood with high sensitivity towards any negative developments," analysts at Nomos Bank said in a note.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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