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Markets

US soy, wheat up; corn drops on record forecast

Published Updated

wheatNEW DELHI: US soybean futures rose on robust demand from China, while wheat gained despite Friday's higher output forecast by the US Department of Agriculture.

Corn fell because of the estimates that US farmers will plant 94.0 million acres and harvest a record crop of 14.270 billion bushels this year.

Chicago Board of Trade March soy futures rose 0.33 percent to $12.83-1/4 a bushel by 0359 GMT. On Friday, soy peaked at $12.84-3/4, its highest since Sept. 23.

Wheat for March delivery gained 0.04 percent to $6.41-1/4 a bushel, while corn fell 0.31 percent to $6.38-1/4 a bushel.

"There are a lot of orders for soybeans from China and most market participants believe the demand is going to be very strong in the days to come," said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of BarrattBulletin, a Sydney-based commodity research firm.

A Chinese trade delegation this month sealed deals to import a record 13.4 million tonnes of soybeans, valued at $6.7 billion, a quarter of the more than 55 million tonnes the world's largest soybean buyer will import this year.

The deal will encourage farmers to grow more soybeans as they prepare to plant their 2012 crop when stocks are already depleted.

China, the biggest importer of US farm products, often books large cargoes of soybeans up to a year in advance to feed a rising urban middle class that is opting for better food.

Many analysts believe growing demand from China, which accounts for more than half of the soybeans traded in the world, threatens to hit global supplies and stir concern over food inflation.

Poor crop prospects in Brazil and Argentina, which together make up almost half of the world's soybean output, have also lent support to prices. Dry weather conditions have ravaged farms in south America.

Argentina's soybean output is forecast at 43.5 million tonnes, lower than many private estimates. Brazil is expected to produce 69.23 million tonnes, down from 71.75 million estimated in January.

Barratt said wheat rose despite higher output forecasts in the United States, the world's biggest exporter.

"Yes, projections are higher but it is a little early to be confident about output as weather will be a key determinant and any poor climatic condition could send yields lower," he said.

Realizing the USDA's bumper crop forecasts will depend a great deal on yields -- a crucial factor that could easily be tempered by weather delays to planting, insufficient rains in the spring or high summer heat.

Barratt said the forecast that the US corn acreage would be the highest since World War Two weighed on prices.

"Overall, in the short term, I believe that the grains complex will be in a positive territory, largely due to pretty healthy global demand," he said.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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