PTI may re-emerge as single largest party in KP

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is likely to re-emerge as the single largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) though it is likely to witness a 3.2 percent decline in national assembly seats from the province. In 2013 PTI won 19 seats out of a total of 35, (54.2 percent) however with an increase in the number of seats to 39 after the delimitation exercise, the party is likely to get 20 seats from KP (51 percent), an anecdotal survey revealed where political analysts as well as voters were interviewed by Business Recorder.
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) is likely to emerge as the second largest party with 8-10 NA seats. In 2013 elections JI won 3 seats and JUI (F) 4 seats and under the banner of MMA the two would increase their electoral strength from the KP. Awami National Party (ANP), Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) won 2, 0 and 7 seats in 2013 and are likely to increase their strength by one each maximum.
Neck and neck competition is expected in NA-1 Chitral between Abdul Latif of PTI and MMA candidate Maulana Abdul Akbar Chitrali - PTI has a clear edge and is likely to win the only seat from this district.
After the re-marking of constituency boundaries, Swat has three NA seats - 2, 3 and 4. The key participants and political parties from NA-2 are Dr. Haider Ali Khan (a provincial assembly member in 2013) - PTI, Amir Muqam - PML N, Amjad Ali Khan - PPP, Naveed Iqbal - MMA, Mumtaz Ahmad - ANP. Haider Ali has a clear edge in this constituency and is likely to win the seat.
In NA-3, the PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif is up against PTI's Salimur Rehman and PPP's Shaharyar Amirzeb, and the MMA candidate has withdrawn his nomination papers in favour of Sharif. According to senior analyst Rahimullah Yusufzai Shahbaz Sharif is the clear favorite as people are expecting development works from him in the area.
In NA-4, PTI's Murad Saeed is up against PML-N's Feroz Shah and ANP's Brigadier Salim Khan. Salim Khan (retd) is the son of the late and very influential Afzal Khan Lala and is likely to win from here. Sahibzada Sibghatullah of PTI, Sahibzada Tariqullah of MMA, Najmuddin Khan of PPP, Muhammad Nisar Khan of PM-N and Malak Imran Khan of ANP are top contenders from NA-5 Dir. MMA has an edge in the area and is likely to win from this constituency. Mehboob Shah of PTI, Javed Akhtar of PML-N, Maulana Asadullah of MMA, Ahmad Hasan of PPP and Muhammad Zahid Khan of ANP are the top contenders for NA-6 However, a close contest is expected among PPP, MMA and PTI and MMA is likely to win form this constituency.
A woman, Sobia Khan of PML-N is contesting for NA-7, Lower Dir while other candidates included Sirajul Haq of MMA, Muhammad Bashir Khan of PTI and Syed Shahid Ahmad Jan of PPP. However MMA is likely to become victorious from this constituency.
PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is contesting the polls from NA-8 Malakand against Junaid Akbar of PTI and Maulana Gul Naseeb Khan of MMA. Bilawal Bhutto's decision to contest from Malakand is based on the fact that it was once a PPP stronghold and referred to as mini-Larkana. The party still has a strong base in the constituency as one of the two former MPAs from the district, Mohammad Ali Shah Bacha, is from PPP. Bilawal Bhutto has an edge and may win from here.
A close contest between three parties on the sole NA-9 (Buner) is expected. Seven contenders, including an independent candidate, are vying for the seat. The PML-N has awarded the ticket to Kamran Khan, ANP has fielded Abdul Rauf Khan, former two-time MNA Sher Akbar Khan is contesting the election on the ticket of the PTI and ex-MNA Istiqbal Khan is representing the MMA. PML-N has an edge over other candidates with JI support and is expected to win from here.
Ibadullah Khan of PML-N, Sadeedur Rehman of ANP, Hamid Iqbal Khan of PPP and Nawaz Mehmood of PTI are among the top-contenders from NA-10 Shangla. However PML-N has a clear edge and is likely to retain the seat.
Afreen Khan of MMA, Aurang Zeb of PTI, Haji Misar Khan of PML-N and Malak Noorwali Shah of PPP are the top contenders from NA-11 Kohistan. Afreen Khan of MMA is likely to win from this constituency.
A tough competition is expected for Mansehra district's two National Assembly seats in the coming general elections. There are 23 candidates contesting for NA-13 constituency and 18 for NA-14. In NA-13, former MNA Sardar Shahjehan Yousuf is PML-N's candidate, the son of former federal minister Sardar Mohammad Yousuf who has represented the constituency in the National Assembly for almost two decades. His son is likely to retain the seat. He will face former MPA and PML-N dissident Salah Mohammad Khan, who is contesting elections as an independent candidate and enjoys the support of the PTI, which had secured over 70,000 votes in the 2013 elections and has not fielded its candidate. He may narrow the vote difference but is unlikely to win the seat.
In NA-14, the actual fight would be between the PML-N and the PTI. Former MNA and former premier Nawaz Sharif's son-in-law Mohammad Safdar was the PML-N candidate, however after his conviction his brother Mohammad Sajjad is contesting from the seat; and the PTI has awarded the ticket to its president in Hazara division Zargul Khan. Other political and religious parties have also fielded candidates in NA-14. Sajjad is likely to win from here.
A tough contest is expected between the PML-N and PTI for Abbottabad's two NA seats with all major parties having fielded candidates on NA-15 and NA-16. Former National Assembly deputy speaker Murtaza Javed Abbasi is the PML-N candidate for NA-15. PTI has named Ali Asghar Khan, the younger son of late Air Marshal Asghar Khan. Observers said Ali Asghar was not a local resident and belongs to Abbottabad city and therefore Javed Abbasi has an edge and may win this seat.
Ali Khan Jadoon of the PTI, Mohabat Awan of the PML-N, independent Shaukat Tanoli, Ayaz Khan Jadoon and Saeed Mughal are contesting from NA-16. PML-N has an edge and may win from here.
PML-N's candidate Babar Nawaz Khan and Omar Ayub of PTI are all set for a tough contest for NA-17, Haripur. A look at the political situation of NA-17 suggests that although both candidates claim to be ahead, it is clear that (i) PTI is a divided house and (ii) Raja Amir's decision to join the group of Babar Nawaz has made the election tough for both sides. However, PML-N has a slight edge and is likely to win from here.
Asad Qaiser of PTI, Mohammad Islam Khan of ANP and Sajjad Ahmad of PML-N are the front runners for NA-18, Swabi. However Mohammad Islam Khan of ANP has an edge and may win from here.
Heavyweights of PTI, MMA, ANP, PML-N and Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) are in the race from NA-19, Swabi. The area had been considered a stronghold of ANP but lost its position after the emergence of Tarakai family who contested the previous two general elections from the area and emerged victorious each time. Tarakai family merged with PTI in November 2015 and now Usman Tarakai is contesting election 2108 from its platform. Total nine candidates are contesting the election from NA-19.
The main contestants are: Usman, Waris Khan of ANP, Attaul Haq Darvaish of MMA, Imranullah of PML-N, Muhammad Naeem of PPP and Syed Khalid of QWP. However, the three leading constants are: Usman, Naeem and Waris. No contesting candidate can match Usman in terms of wealth, influence, strategy, and campaign and he may easily win from here.
The Mardan district is all set to witness tough electoral battle between political heavyweights of mainstream parties on three national assembly constituencies on July 25. Tough election battle is expected among former chief minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti of ANP, former education minister Atif Khan of PTI, former federal minister Khwaja Muhammad Khan Hoti of PPP, Ali Muhammad Khan of PTI and Maulana Muhammad Qasim of MMA. They are all contesting from three different constituencies in Mardan.
In NA-20, a tough contest is expected between PPP's Khawaja Hoti, PTI's Mujahid Khan, MMA's Dr Ata-u-Rehman, ANP's Gul Nawaz Khan and PML-N's Akhtar Nawaz. Except for Gul Nawaz Khan and Akhtar Nawaz, the other three have already won elections there. Dr Ata-u-Rehman of MMA has an edge in the area and may win from here.
Atif Khan of PTI is posing a serious challenge to Amir Haider Khan Hoti on NA-21. Shujaul Mulk of MMA is also a strong candidate as he won this constituency in 2002 general elections comfortably. The registration of 83,536 new voters in the constituency would play a decisive role in the overall results of NA-21 Mardan. However, Hoti has an edge and may win from here.
On NA 22-Mardan, Ali Muhammad Khan of PTI, Jamshed Khan of PMLN and Maulana Muhammad Qasim of MMA are considered to be strong candidates for this important constituency. Former MPA Jamshed Khan and former MNA Maulana Qasim of MMA are posing a serious challenge to Ali Muhammad Khan, who won this constituency in 2013 general elections after securing 46,531 votes against runner-up Maulana Qasim with 39,269 votes. Under the MMA formation Qasim has an edge and may win from here.
PTIs novice candidates have challenged Awami National Party (ANP) chief Asfandyar Wali Khan and Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) Chairman Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao in their native district of Charsadda. On NA-23 Charsadda-I, QWP Chairman Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao has been challenged by MMA Zafar Ali Khan, PTI's Anwar Taj and ANP's Gulzar Ahmed.
Aftab Sherpao is the main contender as he has won this constituency since 1988 and is again posing a serious challenge to all rival candidates. Sherpao has an edge and may win from here.
Asfandyar Wali, who is contesting election 2018 from NA-24 Charsadda-II, was unlucky in 2002 and 2013 general elections and was twice defeated by JUI-F cleric Maulana Gohar Shah. This time around, the ANP supremo is facing Fazal Muhammad Khan of PTI, who was runner-up in the last general elections. However, tough contest is expected between ANP chief and MMA Gohar Shah, and it is too close to call.
PTI has fielded the former chief minister Pervez Khattak for NA-25. For NA-25, the PPP has awarded ticket to a wealthy man Khan Pervez Khan, commonly known as Dubdab Khan (an influential person). He recently joined the PPP and is reportedly using all his resources in the election campaign. MMA's Pir Zulifiqar Shah and ANP's Malik Juma Khan are also considered serious contenders for NA-25. Former PTI MNA Siraj Mohammad Khan is contesting on the PML-Nawaz ticket for the same seat. Khan Pervez Khan of PPP may win from here.
Dr Imran Khattak who is the son-in-law and nephew of former Chief Minister, Pervez Khattak has been fielded for NA-26 whereas MMA has fielded Asif Luqman Qazi, son of former Jumaat e Islami Central Ameer late Qazi Hussain Ahmed. ANP has fielded new comer Jamal Khattak, son of former MPA Tariq Hameed Khattak whereas PPP awarded party ticket to Barrister, Feroz Jamal Shah Kakakhel who is the son of former provincial minister, (late) Mian Jamal Shah Kakakhel. Imran Khattak is likely to win from NA-26.
After the provisional results of the 6th Population and Housing Census 2017, the National Assembly seats in Peshawar increased to five. The delimitation has not only increased a National Assembly seat but has altered the constituencies. The MMA and PTI are the main contenders in three out of the five NA constituencies in the Peshawar district. The position of the ANP and PML-N is considered stronger than the MMA in the remaining two constituencies in Peshawar. Among the 10 candidates running for NA-27, PTI's Noor Alam Khan and MMA's Ghulam Ali are the main contestants. Asma Alamgir of Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Arbab Tahir Nadim of ANP are also contesting from this rural constituency. Noor Alam Khan has an edge and may win the seat.
Six candidates running for NA-28, including PTI's Arbab Aamir Ayub and MMA's Sabir Hussain Awan are stated to be ahead of other contestants, including Mohammad Intikhab Chamkani of PML-N who recently joined the party after he quit Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and joined Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Ayub has a clear edge and may win the seat, said Yusufzai.
Among the five candidates for NA-29, the main contestants are expected to be the PTI's Nasir Khan Musazai and PML-N's Amir Muqam. Their position is considered stronger than Naeem Jan of MMA, Arbab Kamal Ahmad of ANP and Mohammad Shafiq of Tehreek-e-Labbaik. A triangular contest is expected among the candidates of the ANP, PML-N and PTI in the NA-29. Five candidates are contesting the general election in this rural Peshawar constituency. The PML-N has fielded its provincial President Amir Muqam, Arbab Kamal Ahmad is contesting on the ticket of ANP, Nasir Khan Musazai is the PTI candidate while Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) has fielded Naeem Jan. The registered voters in the constituency, rebranded as NA-29, are 320,401. Mauqam is likely to win from here.
PTI's Arbab Sher Ali and MMA's Arbab Najeebullah and PPP's former federal minister Arbab Alamgir are strong candidates in NA-30. Arbab Najeebullah is likely to win from here.
Out of 13 candidates in NA-31 comprising Peshawar city, tough competition is expected between PTI's Shaukat Ali and ANP's Ghulam Ahmad Bilour. Shaukat Ali is likely to win from here after expecting to get the sympathy vote.
Abbas Afridi of PML-N, Shehryar Afridi of PTI, Bismillah Khan of PPP and Gohar Muhammad Khan Bangash are the front runners for NA- 32 Kohat. However, neck and neck contest is expected between Abbas Afridi of PML-N and Shehryar Afridi of PTI, where the latter is likely to win.
Ulfat Hussain of PPP, Syed Haider Ali Shah of ANP, Khial Zaman of PTI and Atiq Ur Rehman of MMA are the main contenders for NA-33 Hangu. However, neck and neck contest is expected between Khial Zaman of PTI and Atiq Ur Rehman of MMA where the later has an edge and may win from here.
A total of 19 candidates are in the run for NA-34 Karak. Rehmat Salam Khattak from PML-N, Shahid Ahmad Khattak from PTI, Mir Zakim Khan from MMA and Nawabzada Mohsin Ali Khan from PPP are the front runner from this constituency. However, PTI has a clear edge may win from here.
Akram Khan Durrani from MMA and Imran Ahmad Khan Niazi from PTI are the top contenders from NA-35 Bannu. Tough contest is expected between the two; however MMA is likely to emerge victorious from this constituency.
There are 18 candidates participating in general election from NA 36 Lakki Marwat constituency of KP. Inam Ullah Khan of PPP, Ishfaq Ahmad Khan of PTI, Muhammad Anwar Khan of MMA and Imran Ullah Khan of PML-N are in the run for final contest. However, Ishfaq Ahmad Khan of PTI is likely to win from here.
Habib Ullah Khan Kundi of PTI, Waqar Ahmad Khan Independent, Asad Mehmood of MMA, and Sami Ullah Khan Burki of PML-N are in the front runner for NA-37 Tank. Neck and neck contest is expected between PTI, MMA and independent candidate Waqar Ahmad Khan and it's too close to call.
Waqar Ahmad Khan (independent), Dawar Khan Kundi (independent), Mauulana Fazal Ur Rehman from MMA and Ali Ameen Khan Gandapur from PTI are the front runner from NA-38. However MMA is likely to win from this constituency. Waqar Ahmad Khan (independent), Moulana Fazal Ur Rehman from MMA and Muhammad Yaqoob Sheikh from PTI are the front runner for NA-39 and it is too close call.