Financial market jitters over the last week have seen the biggest move out of tech stocks in three months and from emerging market bonds in over two months, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest round up of 'flow' data has showed. The bank's analysts said investors have been like a "deer in the headlights" during the volatility, pumping $2.8 billion into broader bond funds, almost $1 billion into gold and largely left equities untouched despite some regional discrepancies.
A possible positive in all this for investors is that its gauge that was flashing market overheating warnings earlier this year has come down to more sensible levels, while it could prevent big central banks doing anything rash with rates. "Good news = froth-off," BAML said. "Good news = market saying Fed tightening = policy mistake... even better news = synchronized monetary blinking."
BAML's analysts also recommended bucking the traditional market superstition and buying in May. They said peak earning-per-share ratios, cleaner post-selloff positioning, plus more dovish central banks and China stimulus could boost tech and EM again, though they said they would then sell it again.
The "cleanest trade" meanwhile was to buy the dollar at least until US central bank, the Federal Reserve, "blinks". They noted US-Europe 10-yr yield spread was now the widest since fall of Berlin Wall in 1989. Breaking down the weekly flow numbers which run from Wednesday to Wednesday showed the dive for safety.
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