Strategie Grains has cut its forecast for the European Union's soft wheat exports this season for the fifth month running, citing poor shipments from the Baltic States and Poland. The analyst forecast exports in the current 2017/2018 (July/June) season at 21.2 million tonnes, 250,000 tonnes below last month's estimate and down from 24.1 million tonnes in 2016/17.
"The export reduction concerns the Baltic countries and Poland, whose exports onto the world market are extraordinarily low compared with previous years. Poland may struggle to export over 1 million tonnes to third countries in 2017/18," Strategie Grains said in its monthly report on Thursday. Higher projected use in animal feed in Poland, the Netherlands and Spain, offset the reduced exports, so that its forecast for EU soft wheat stocks on June 30 were cut by 200,000 tonnes from last month to 13.5 million tonnes. Ending stocks in 2016/17 were at 12.0 million tonnes.
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday cut its monthly forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season. In contrast, for the 2018/19 season, Strategie Grains raised its estimate for EU wheat exports to 24.6 million tonnes from 24.1 million last month to take account of a fall in US wheat competitiveness against the EU origins and higher expected availability in Romania and Baltic countries.
"However, any potential growth for French exports from the level we currently forecast currently seems limited because French wheat still lacks competitiveness against the Black Sea origins, which is problematic in terms of exports to North Africa as well as sub-Saharan Africa," Strategie Grains said. For barley, Strategie Grains cut its export estimates for both the current and next season. EU barley shipments in 2017/18 were pegged at 6.9 million tonnes, down 300,000 tonnes from last month, including a downwards revision of 150,000 tonnes from France.
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