Russian rouble up, dividends seen limiting room for more gains

MOSCOW: The rouble rose on Monday, taking advantage of the lower dollar, which eased after U.S. jobs data showed slower-than-expected wage growth, but the rouble's gains may be limited by dividends that Russian companies pay this week.

At 0804 GMT, the rouble was 0.3 percent stronger against the dollar at 62.78, the level last seen on June 29, and had gained 0.1 percent to 73.92 versus the euro .

A possible escalation of global trade wars remained the main risk for the market, analysts at VTB Capital said in a note.

On Friday, Russia imposed additional import duties on some U.S.  goods after the United States put tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

This week, the dividend season could put pressure on the rouble. Foreign investors in Russian companies usually convert dividends into other currencies.

"This week the rouble might continue to lag the emerging market forex momentum as, according to our estimates, dividend payments are set to accelerate this week," VTB Capital said.

Later this month, a board meeting by the Russian central bank will be in focus after annual inflation in Russia slowed to 2.3 percent in June.

"In such conditions, the Bank of Russia could soften its rhetoric in the third quarter of 2018 and continue a gradual decline in the key rate in the forth quarter," analysts at Rosbank said. It forecast the key rate at 7.00 percent by the end of the year versus 7.25 percent now.

A rebound in oil prices helped Russian assets. Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.44 percent at $77.42 a barrel.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 0.81 percent to 1,183 points. The rouble-based MOEX was 0.51 percent higher at 2,357 points.