BUDAPEST: The forint rebounded from 23-month lows on Tuesday and investors waited to see if later in the session the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) would address a recent surge in government bond yields, though it was expected to keep rates unchanged.
The forint firmed 0.6 percent 316.55 against the euro by 0822 GMT, after hitting its weakest level in almost two years at 319.49 on Monday, when domestic markets were closed.
The NBH is still in "a difficult situation" as global markets remain shaky, and will need to communicate cautiously to prevent unwanted speculative flows through the forint market, one Budapest-based foreign currency dealer said.
"If they say anything, they are more likely to talk about the bond market... Stirring the forint market could be dangerous," the dealer added.
The NBH is expected to keep rates steady at its meeting on Tuesday, in keeping with expectations for this year and next. It is due to publish its interest rate decision at 1200 GMT.
But investors are particularly interested in whether the bank has anything to say about the surge in long-terms yields which shattered a main NBH goal to keep its spreads over core market yields stable, traders and analysts said.
Hungarian bonds outperformed most regional peers in the last two years, with yields falling below those of Poland, which has better credit ratings. This has made them more vulnerable to a rise in US interest rates.
In recent weeks Hungarian bonds have been the hardest hit in Central Europe by a sell-off in emerging market assets in the past weeks amid rallies in the dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield.
Hungary's 10-year bond yield has risen by about 60 basis points this month, compared to the Polish yield's rise of about 20 basis point. The corresponding US yield rose by around 30 basis points.
On Tuesday the 10-year Hungarian paper traded at a steady 3.18 percent yield in morning trade, off an early high of 3.23 percent, while Poland's yield dropped 5 basis points from their last close to 3.27 percent.
"If they do not say anything, that has a message, too," another Budapest-based dealer said, adding that a further rise in yields may lead to a drying up of the secondary market within days as a lack of buyers has caused bid/ask spreads to widen.
"The success of 3-4 years (in pushing down yields) just should not get wiped out so easily," the trader added.
In currency markets, the zloty -- the other most liquid currency in the region along with the forint -- got a bigger beating than the Hungarian unit from this month's sell-off in emerging markets.
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