BERLIN: German industrial output probably fell in November, reversing a brief rebound the previous month, in another sign that growth in Europe's biggest economy is slowing and could even turn negative for at least a quarter.
Data due this week is expected to show output falling 0.5 percent on the month in November, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters, after rising 0.8 percent a month prior, as the German economy felt the twin headwinds of the euro zone debt crisis and the global economic slowdown.
"November's industrial production data is likely to reveal that the engine of the euro zone's recovery has shifted back into reverse," Capital Economics said in a research note.
"There is every chance that the earlier downward trend will be renewed in November and beyond," it added.
Forward-looking orders data released on Friday has already signalled a slump ahead, with orders falling at the fastest pace since the height of the financial crisis nearly three years ago as demand from outside the euro zone plummeted.
So far, Germany has weathered the euro zone debt crisis better than its peers but it too is beginning to feel the pinch, prompting the government, central bank, and research institutes to lower their 2012 growth forecasts.
The Bundesbank expects growth of 0.6 percent this year, less than the government's official forecast of 1.0 percent, while think tank IMK has even predicted a mild recession.
GDP data due on Wednesday is expected to show the economy expanded 3 percent last year, according to economists' consensus forecast.
Germany's export-oriented economy faces downside risks if growth in key markets abroad disappoint in 2012, although some economists say the size and scope of any downturn would be limited.
Unemployment has fallen to its lowest level in two decades, raising the possibility that steady household spending could help temper a slowdown in exports.
In a report issued last week, the DIW Institute for Economic Research said the economy was set to gain fresh momentum in the second half of this year after flirting with recession in the first half.
Trade figures for November, due on Monday, are expected to show a slight increase in both imports and exports after the previous month's decline, but also a slight narrowing of the trade surplus to 12 billion euros from 12.6 billion euros.
Exports are seen rising by 0.7 percent month-on-month after falling 3.6 percent in October, while imports are expected to rise by 1.1 percent after a 1 percent drop in October.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.