China March soybean imports rise 15% y/y, lag expectations amid Brazil checks

BEIJING: China’s soybean imports rose 14.9% in March on the year, but kept well below analysts’ expectations, weighed down by delayed shipments from Brazil because of tougher inspections to rule out contamination.

Total imports stood at 4.02 million metric tons, up from 3.5 million a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday.

“March imports were well below our estimate of around 6.4 million metric tons, weighed down by delayed shipments from Brazil due to tightened phytosanitary checks,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst from Shanghai JC Intelligence Co.

“However, arrivals rose 14.9% from a year earlier, supported by a low base, as last year’s volumes were hit by crushers shying away from US soybeans and delays to Brazil’s harvest.”

Trade sources have told Reuters the checks were prompted by Beijing’s repeated findings of pesticide- and fungicide-coated beans among the shipments, besides heat damage and live insects.

Over the period from January to March, soybean arrivals in the world’s biggest buyer totalled 16.58 million tons, down 3.1% from 17.11 million tons a year earlier, the data showed.

Imports are expected to recover in coming months as more US shipments and Brazil’s record crop reach Chinese ports.

“From April to June, soybean arrivals are expected to average above 10 million metric tons per month,” said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

“US soybean planting weather and potential logistical disruptions bear watching, while steady demand from the livestock sector is expected to provide support, suggesting prices may remain range-bound with broad fluctuations.”

Traders await a May summit of US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for further clues to China’s future demand for American soybeans.

Trade tension delayed Chinese purchases of the US autumn soybean harvest until late October, after the two leaders met to ease ties.

China has imported roughly 12 million metric tons of US soybeans since.