Soybeans fall to lowest since October on slow pace of Chinese buying

CANBERRA: Chicago soybean futures on Monday fell below $11 for the first time since October amid speculation that China will not buy enough US beans to sustain higher prices and after the US government forecast an increase in US soy planting.

Wheat and corn futures edged lower, pressured by ample global supply.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.8% at $10.96-1/2 a bushel at 0438 GMT after touching $10.96, the lowest since October 30.

Soybeans have now fallen more than 6% from a 17-month high of $11.69-1/2 reached last month after a trade truce between Washington and Beijing renewed Chinese purchases of US soy.

However, the pace of Chinese buying has underwhelmed traders, with Friday’s sale of 462,000 metric tons bringing total US soybean sales to China to about 2.7 million tons since the truce was struck.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in October that China would quickly buy 12 million tons of US soybeans.

Last week, he appeared to push back the deadline for that target to the end of February.

Analysts at Citi said they expected China to purchase 10 million tons by year-end, significantly more than they said most in the market were forecasting.

“We expect soybean prices to continue to gain on the back of China’s commitment to provide a floor in US soybean exports and reach $11.50/bu within 3 months and $12.50/bu within 12 months,” they wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, the USDA said farmers were likely to expand soybean seeding and reduce corn and wheat plantings for the upcoming marketing year.

The USDA’s monthly supply and demand report is anticipated on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the agency will raise its estimate for US soybean ending stocks and reduce its projection for ending stocks of US wheat and corn, which have had stronger export demand.

In other crops, CBOT wheat fell 0.1% to $5.35 a bushel and corn eased 0.1% to $4.44 a bushel.

“Globally, it does look like wheat demand is picking up,” said Commonwealth Bank analyst Dennis Voznesenski.

“But there’s such plentiful supply that it doesn’t feel like prices can move higher.”