‘Scientifically unfounded’: PMD rebuts claims of extremely cold winter in Pakistan

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Thursday said the unverified reports that Pakistan will experience extremely cold weather were scientifically unfounded.

PMD, as the sole national authority for weather and climate monitoring, issued this clarification in response to unverified reports and social media content suggesting that Pakistan will experience the “Extremely cold winter”.

Quoting a UN OCHA situation report about Pakistan, developed in coordination with the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG), local media reported that La Niña may trigger across-the-board temperature declines nationwide in Pakistan.

La Nina is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures, which can influence global weather and climate.

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The Met Office in its rebuttal said these claims are scientifically unfounded and not supported by PMD’s seasonal outlook or current global climate indicators.

PMD said its Seasonal Winter Forecast (December - February), based on regional and global climate prediction models validated and verified through WMO-supported systems, indicates near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall and temperatures will be slightly above normal over most parts of the country.

“While localised cold spells are likely due to passing western disturbances, no evidence supports an exceptionally severe or record-breaking cold season across Pakistan,” it said.

The weather advisory department said current oceanic and atmospheric analyses indicate the presence of a weak to moderate La Niña phase over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. “Historically, La Niña conditions tend to suppress the intensity and frequency of winter weather systems over South and Southwest Asia, including Pakistan,” it said.

Consequently, the Met Office said, such conditions usually result in fewer and weaker western disturbances reaching the country, reduced rainfall and snowfall activity over the northern and western highlands, and milder temperature anomalies across the plains of Punjab and Sindh.

Therefore, it said, the ongoing La Niña event is expected to moderate the overall intensity of the upcoming winter season, contrary to the unfounded claims of an exceptionally cold or record-breaking winter in Pakistan.

The PMD has advised the public and media to rely only on official forecasts and bulletins available through its website and verified communication channels. Circulating false information about weather and climate can cause unnecessary alarm and public confusion, it added.

Earlier this year in January, rumors were spread that temperatures would plummet to record-breaking lows from January 12 to 15, with snowfall even predicted in central Punjab.

Following which, the PMD had issued a clarification denying rumours circulating on social media about an unprecedented cold spell expected in the country.

The PMD had clarified that the claims were baseless and unfounded. “While cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the country, there is no evidence to support the claims of a record-breaking cold wave,” it had said.