At its current pace, cement offtake this year is likely to end up roughly at the same level as last year. Domestic dispatches are estimated to have declined by around 6 percent, but total dispatches have been buoyed by a 24–25 percent rise in exports.
Despite muted local demand, cement companies have remained largely profitable, thanks to strong domestic pricing and controlled coal costs. The upcoming budget, however, could bring even better news.
After quietly dissolving former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s flagship initiative—the Naya Pakistan Housing Development Authority (NAPHDA)—Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif now appears poised to introduce a housing finance subsidy, echoing Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar (MPMG) scheme in structure, but likely introduced with less fanfare.
In its four years of operation, NAPHDA had planned 156,000 housing units, of which only about 58,000 were completed. Of these, 31,000 were financed through MPMG. Given the original target of 5 million homes, progress has been disappointing. It’s worth noting, however, that many of the projects under NAPHDA were not initiated by the authority itself but were pre-existing schemes absorbed into its portfolio.
The current administration does not appear keen on launching a massive, centrally managed housing initiative—which, considering NAPHDA’s bureaucratic pitfalls and Pakistan’s fiscal constraints is probably wise.
Instead, the government is planning a modest, targeted mark-up subsidy for 200,000 homes. That’s a small and manageable start.
Banks already have mechanisms in place to assess mortgage applications, owing to their experience with MPMG.
According to BR estimates—since the SBP did not disclose borrower figures—approximately 78,000 mortgages were issued between 2020 and 2022, tied to Rs100 billion in loan disbursements (read: “Now you see it, now you don’t”). With limited data, it’s difficult to assess the full impact of the scheme. But if Sharif’s plan delivers financing for 200,000 homes through the formal banking channel, it would be more than double of what the MPMG ever achieved. And double is better, right? One cannot possible say.
The fact is, whether a subsidy scheme will be impactful and add valuable output to the housing market or not, is a question for another day or another political era.. We will have to wait for the Budget 2026 announcement to see the exact modalities of the subsidy—who the scheme will target, and how it will be executed.
What’s certain increase housing credit will spur demand for construction materials, and cement stands to gain the most which the industry will undoubtedly welcome.
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