Central to southern parts of Pakistan: above-normal rainfall likely till July

LAHORE: The weather forecast has indicated a general tendency for normal to slightly above-normal rainfall across the central to southern parts of the country with the highest departures expected in the northeastern parts of Punjab during the months of May, June and July. In contrast, the northern regions, including northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir are likely to experience normal to slightly below-normal rainfall during the forecast period.

Meanwhile, the Met office has predicted continuity of heatwave during the current week. Day temperatures are likely to remain four to six degree Celsius above-normal in Southern Punjab.

The above-normal rainfall is expected to relax the soil moisture deficiency in areas that are already experiencing drought conditions, especially during the second half of the season.

Regular irrigation will be necessary for standing crops to compensate for soil moisture deficits caused by high temperatures. The majority of models predict above-normal temperatures across the country with maximum likelihood over northern areas of the country.

The atmospheric conditions are suggestive for the likelihood of heat wave development during the season; especially over the plain areas of southern Punjab and Sindh. Strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms may arise as a result of the temperature gradients.

Flash or urban flooding is anticipated in hill torrent areas and plains of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and KP due to heavy rainfall events during the second half of the season.

Elevated temperatures in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir are anticipated to accelerate snowmelt, consequently increasing river water levels.

These conditions may lead to a further decline in moisture levels, particularly in the upper regions. Therefore, additional irrigation will be required for the upcoming Kharif crops, vegetables, and orchards especially in moisture stressed areas.

However, during July 2025, normal to above normal rainfall is likely in most parts of the country including Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This may help reduce moisture stress and support the growth of Kharif crops and other seasonal plantations.

In addition, strong winds, thunderstorms, and occasional hail events are expected in the upper half of the country during May to July. Farmers are advised to protect their standing crops (like cotton, peanuts, sugarcane and gram) and may plan their field activities accordingly.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025