Donald Trump’s latest remarks urging Opec+ to bring down oil prices have added another layer of noise to an already volatile market. The current U.S. president, leading in polls for a potential return, has once again resorted to his familiar playbook—publicly pressuring the oil cartel.
Unlike in 2018, when a mere Trump tweet sent oil prices tumbling, Opec+ now seems less inclined to dance to Washington’s tune. The upcoming Opec+ ministerial meeting on February 3 is unlikely to yield any immediate reaction, with the group expected to stick to its pre-announced April timeline for gradual production increases.
The real contradiction lies in Trump’s own promises. His “Drill Baby Drill” stance suggests a revival of U.S. fossil fuel production, but this doesn’t align with his commitment to bringing down gas prices. Drilling and fracking require capital, and that capital doesn’t flow when prices are low, and the market outlook is bearish.
If Trump is serious about ramping up domestic oil production, he would need higher oil prices to incentivize investment. But higher prices at the wellhead mean higher prices at the pump—precisely what he wants to avoid.
Brent crude initially reacted sharply to Trump’s theatrics, dropping to its lowest level for 2025 to date, but prices now appear to be stabilizing. While his comments created short-term volatility, the broader market seems to be adjusting back to fundamentals. The latest U.S. stockpile report, largely in line with street consensus, has also provided a degree of stability. The expected drawdown did not present any major surprises, reinforcing the notion that supply dynamics remain largely unchanged.
Meanwhile, the market is slowly pricing in the Trump factor and refocusing on fundamentals. Demand-side concerns from China, the Fed’s rate trajectory, and geopolitical risks such as tighter Russian sanctions will likely play a larger role in shaping the oil outlook than political influence. Additional U.S. sanctions on Russia could also work against Trump’s objective of lower oil prices by tightening supply and pushing prices higher.
OPEC+, with Saudi Arabia and Russia at the helm, is not in the business of subsidizing Trump’s inflation fight, nor does it see an immediate reason to abandon its strategy of measured supply control. The February 3 meeting is expected to yield nothing more than a generic statement, with the group remaining committed to the previously agreed April timeline for unwinding production cuts.
For now, Trump’s words may create short-term market jitters, but they don’t change the structural realities of the oil market. He can call for lower prices, but he cannot have it both ways—encouraging more drilling while also ensuring cheap gasoline. The oil market, as always, remains indifferent to political grandstanding. Fundamentals will dictate the price, not campaign slogans.
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