CANBERRA: Chicago wheat futures steadied on Wednesday following four consecutive daily losses, as concerns over supply from Russia partially offset a stronger dollar and weak outlook for US exports. Soybean futures fell and hovered near four-year lows amid good crop conditions in Brazil and lacklustre Chinese demand for US beans. Corn was little changed, with prices consolidating after a rally to 5-1/2-month highs last week.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was flat at $5.45 a bushel by 0525 GMT. Consultants Sovecon cut their forecast for 2025 wheat production in Russia - the world’s biggest wheat exporter - by 3 million metric tons to 78.7 million tons, citing that crop conditions were the worst in decades. Russia flooded the market through much of 2024, holding CBOT wheat around four-year lows, but Russian export prices are now rising and shipments are expected to slow sharply.
However, ongoing harvests in Argentina and Australia have exceeded expectations, Ukrainian crops are in better shape than feared, according to consultants APK-Inform, and good rainfall in US wheat-growing areas has raised the production outlook amid concerns over US export prospects.
In addition, the dollar is near November’s two-year high against a basket of major peers, making US exports costlier for buyers with other currencies. Russia has produced exceptionally large crops in the last couple of years and the Sovecon forecast would - if correct - simply return production to typical pre-2022 levels, said Andrew Whitelaw at consultants Episode 3 in Canberra.
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