All quiet on the external front?

While the pandemic has caused some countries to look inwards, in reality the need for the world to cooperate, to counter future pandemics and to keep the global aid and trade flowing in crisis times, has become pronounced. During the crisis in 2020, Pakistan’s foreign policy continued to remain stuck in a loop. The oft-argued demand for increasing economic orientation within its foreign policy remained unmet. Many interesting things happened on the external front this year, but proved short of a breakthrough.

As the year started, CPEC was expected to graduate to next level in 2020 after a slowdown in 2018 and 2019, but soon came Covid-19 and put paid to growing ambitions on both sides. Meanwhile, the US-Taliban peace agreement, which was inked just weeks before the pandemic became truly serious, was seen as diplomatic victory in Pakistan, but Afghanistan still burns and intra-Afghan peace talks are yet to show progress. The US-Pak relations remained stable, a positive, but India drew even closer to US.

In early pandemic, SAARC was inspired into action to share information and pool resources to put up a regional fight against the virus. But the efforts gradually died out as Indo-Pak differences came in the way. In the Muslim world, Pakistan tried to mend fences with the Saudis, but frosty relations became ugly in public as the usually-polite foreign minister suddenly turned hostile on the Kingdom in August. On top of Saudi dollar outflows, GCC majors like UAE also became less welcoming during the year. The PM’s maiden Kabul visit last month inspired some optimism, just as recent high-level engagements with Dhaka.

Now heading into 2021, what lessons have been learnt to conduct a foreign policy for the future? It is becoming clear that foreign policy must support economic imperatives if Pakistan is to grow its exports and FDI to keep clear of macroeconomic crises. The country needs a post-pandemic economic strategy, for which a post-pandemic foreign policy needs to play a helping hand. As of now, foreign policy seems confused – it follows economic rationale in dealing with major powers like China and US, but submits its relations with neighbors (e.g. India, Afghanistan), and now GCC, to a crude interpretation of geopolitics.

Not every country can pay the economic cost of prioritizing moral or ideological principles the conduct of its foreign policy. Certainly not Pakistan. The less-obvious casualty of Modi’s actions in Kashmir is Pakistan’s economy. The urge to respond got the Khan government immediately distracted from running the affairs of the government, as it was forced to launch local and international campaigns to highlight the Kashmir situation. In the end, the status quo held up in Kashmir even as close allies were annoyed over Pakistan’s demands to do more.

Not much may change in 2021, but it will be a different year, perhaps the beginning of a different era in how nations approach relations with each other. Joe Biden will be the US President and he is expected to comfort allies and put foes on notice. How will Pakistan capture Biden’s attention beyond mutual interests in pacifying Afghanistan? Having stared down Covid-19 decisively, China may become more assertive overseas, and the vaccine diplomacy may help its quest for global influence. How does Pakistan see its relationship evolving with China, if the ties are to be perceived mutually beneficial?

The Saudis don’t seem to be in a charitable mood anymore. How can Pakistan ensure that relations don't deteriorate further, impacting vital remittance inflows? The South Asia region is the most complicated. Painted into a corner over actions and reactions on Kashmir, how will India and Pakistan approach any fresh diplomatic opening? In Afghanistan, the Biden administration will try to safeguard its security interests and leave the land after a power-sharing agreement. But what is Pakistan’s strategy for a situation where its Western neighbor plunges into a deeper civil war, impacting this country’s peace?

Today, the diplomatic space is restricted for Pakistan, and it needs to be enlarged if Pakistan is to help others in need. The foreign policy has to evolve from moral talking points to a practical framework based on economic principles. Keeping a low external profile will also help if the aim is to drive development in the country. The need is to demonstrate a high-level political commitment to link foreign policy goals with economic objectives. But who will bell the cat?