US natgas edges up on record LNG exports, cooler weather forecasts

US natural gas futures edged up on Friday as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continued to hit fresh record highs and on forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand in coming weeks.

The gas price increase came despite a slow but steady rise in output as higher crude prices in recent weeks have led to drillers seeking more oil. Those oil wells also produce a lot of associated gas.

Front-month gas futures were up 3.6 cents, or 1.2%, at $3.012 per million British thermal units at 8:12 a.m. EST (1312 GMT).

For the week, the contract was up around 4%, after losing almost 14% last week.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 89.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from a five-month low of 87.4 bcfd in October. That, however, was still well below the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

As the weather turns seasonally cooler, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would jump from 92.2 bcfd this week to 103.8 bcfd next week, and 105.2 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week, however, was less than Refinitiv expected on Thursday.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants has averaged 10.1 bcfd so far in November, up from a five-month high of 7.7 bcfd in October, as rising prices in Europe and Asia in recent months have prompted global buyers to purchase more US gas.

That tops the 9.8-bcfd US LNG export capacity and compares with an all-time monthly high for feedgas of 8.7 bcfd in February. LNG plants can pull in a little more gas than they can export since they use some of the fuel to run the facility.