UK GAS-Prices fall on end of Norway strike, mild outlook

British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning, reacting to the end of a strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers as well as mild and windy weather forecasts from next week.

The day-ahead contract was 1.05 pence lower at 37.25 pence per therm at 0805 GMT.

The November contract was down by 1.10 pence at 37.30 p/therm.

Traders pointed to the end of Norway's oil and gas strike, which had threatened to cuts almost 25% of its oil and gas output this week, as a key driver.

Further price pressure stemmed from forecasts of normal to above normal temperatures and rising wind output from next week, said one trader.

Temperatures in Britain are expected to rise from current below seasonal averages from Oct. 20, analysts at Refinitv said in a report.

Power demand in Britain may also fall over the coming days amid a return of some lockdown measures as COVID-19 cases continue to rise, it said.

The British gas system was over-supplied on Monday morning, with demand forecast at 227.7 million cubic metres (mcm) and flows at 234.3 mcm/day, National Grid data shows.

Norwegian imports to Britain were 7 mcm higher than on Friday at 95mcm/day.

"LNG send out is higher today and may continue over the coming days with all three terminals active today, something we have not observed of late," Refinitiv said.

Peak wind generation is forecast to rise from 5.8 gigawatts (GW) today to 8.1 GW on Tuesday, Elexon data shows. Total metered capacity stands at 18 GW.

Higher winds usually reduce gas for power demand, which Refinitiv pegged 7 mcm lower for Tuesday at 48 mcm/day.

The November gas price at the Dutch TTF hub was down by 0.35 euro to 13.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).

The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract was down 0.32 euro at 25.39 euros per tonne, a two-month low.