Turkish inflation flat-lines at just under 12pc

ISTANBUL: Turkey's consumer price inflation edged slightly down to 11.75pc year-on-year in September, data showed on Monday, lower than a poll forecast of 12.13pc but well above an official target range around 5pc.

Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 0.97pc in September, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, compared to a Reuters poll forecast of 1.35pc. In August, annual inflation stood at 11.77pc.

Last month the Turkish central bank hiked its policy rate by 200 basis points to 10.25pc, tightening policy for the first time in two years to rein in inflation and lift the lira from record lows.

The depreciation has raised inflation via imports.

In September the biggest price rises were in miscellaneous goods and services which rose 25.17pc, followed by health prices up 15.09pc and food and non-alcoholic drinks up 14.95pc.

Monday's data had little impact on the lira, which was 0.4pc firmer than Friday's close at 7.7565 against the dollar.

It is enduring its eighth straight year of losses, shedding some 80pc of its value in the past decade.

Last week, the Finance Ministry revised its year-end inflation expectation to 10.5pc citing increased unit costs and pass-through effect from exchange rates.

Commerzbank said the pandemic has not brought disinflation in Turkey nor its peers so "there is no reason to expect any exogenous-driven disinflation which could counter this trend."

"We do not yet see any drivers which could bring inflation down in the medium-term," it added in a note.

The median estimate for September annual inflation in a Reuters poll of 12 economists was 12.13pc, with estimates ranging between 11.79pc and 13.00pc.

The producer price index rose 2.65pc month-on-month in September for an annual rise of 14.33pc, the data showed.