Global 2011/12 soyameal output is likely to be below consumption and recent soyameal price strength is justified by the tight supply fundamentals, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. "Soyameal prices recovered in recent weeks and were relatively stronger than soyaoil," it said. "This is fundamentally justified by the further deterioration of South American crop prospects."
Expected falls in Argentine and other South American soyabean crops after drought will restrain the rise in world soyabean crushing in coming months, Oil World said. "For October 2011/September 2012 we expect world consumption of soyameal to rise more sharply than production," it said. Global October 2011/September 2012 soyameal production of 180.36 million tonnes will be below consumption of 180.65 million tonnes, it forecasts.
This compares to 2010/11 production of 175.46 million tonnes and consumption of 175.01 million tonnes. This will mean global end-September 2012 soyameal stocks will fall to 7.21 million tonnes from 7.55 million tonnes in September 2011, Oil World forecasts.
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