Scattered showers will reach parts of Brazil's drought-hit southern grain belt over the next 10 days, forecaster Somar said Monday, though precipitation should be low in areas now losing production due to the lack of moisture. No 3 soy state Rio Grande do Sul in the far south c ould see some of its first showers in weeks in the next few days though they may be light.
Somar's extended forecast showed much heavier rain could hit the state from January 14-18. Rio Grande do Sul plants its harvest later than some other states and analysts say its soy could still emerge largely unscathed if sufficient rain reaches the area by as late as January 20 to secure moisture needed for seedlings to survive. The same light then heavier rain is also headed for the No 1 corn state Parana where drought has caused irreversible losses. The north of the state could see cumulative rainfall as heavy as 50 millimeters (1.96 inches) over two days, Somar said.
Drought in southern Brazil, linked to the La Nina weather anomaly that has also kept neighbouring Argentina dangerously dry, has been the key factor behind a recent grain market rally. Chicago's CBOT corn futures have rallied about 15 percent and soybeans about 13 percent from their respective mid-December lows.
Last week Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states lowered their estimates for their grain crops. The government's crop supply agency Conab will issue its own updated forecast for the entire country's grain on Tuesday. Somar data showed no rainfall had been observed around weather stations in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana in the last three days. Top soy state Mato Grosso do Sul has just begun harvesting but consistent heavy rain all week is likely to slow progress as machinery needs fairly dry conditions to operate. Mato Grosso's crop has benefited from mostly good weather this year.
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