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A wave of rains drenched Brazil's soya belt over the past several days, which will favour planting as skies clear this week, local forecasters Somar said on Monday. After a slow start to rains over Brazil's main center-west soya producing states, showers pushed into the region over the past week with greater consistency, bringing ample moisture to some regions.
No 4 and No 5 soyabean producing states Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul, both in the center-west, have already surpassed or are near their total average rainfall levels for the entire month of October. Analysts reported that planting in some areas of No 1 soyabean state Mato Grosso is already near complete. The state is normally the first in Brazil to plant and harvest.
Isolated rains in the center-west region started in late September and have spread with greater intensity since. Spot afternoon showers are expected to continue this week with temperatures and humidity on the rise in the region. In its extended 10-day forecast, Somar said that the cold front now producing rain in Brazil's northeaster soya areas will weaken through the week but rains will gradually return to the main soya belt after October 26 when a new cold front is due to arrive.
The southern soyabean states are also getting excellent rains so far this season. Parana, the No 2 soya producer, has seen 78 percent of its monthly rainfall so far in October. Planting is advanced in the state. No 3 producer state Rio Grande do Sul is not far behind in rainfall totals for the month but is not expected to start planting until November.
The risk of drought over the southern soya states is slightly higher this year compared with last season, which registered record yields due to good rain distribution, Somar said. The return of La Nina weather patterns is expected by the end of 2011, which tends to produce drier conditions in Brazil's southern grain belt and wetter weather in the center-west. The 2010/11 season was also under the influence of La Nina, however, and yields and output reached record levels.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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