Political campaigning in Thailand drew to a close on Saturday, taking a day to cool off before an election which could exacerbate the country's six-year-old political crisis just as easily as end it. Opinion polls point to a win by the opposition Puea Thai (For Thais) party led by Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, over the Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Thaksin, who lives in self-appointed exile in Dubai after being deposed by the military in 2006, looms large over the election, hugely popular with the red shirts supporters of Puea Thai and hated by the Democrat elite who want him to stand trial for corruption.
The risk of turbulence lies in the margin of a Puea Thai win and the reaction of the red shirts, mostly rural and urban poor whose protests last year prompted a bloody crackdown. Key as well will be the response of the military, which has a history of intervening in Thai politics.
"If they cheat there will be protests in Bangkok for sure. It will be the same as the Rajaprasong protest," said Tan Chaithep, chief assistant of the Red Shirt village of Ban Nong Hoo Ling in the heart of red shirt territory in the north-east. The Rajaprasong intersection was the focal point of last year's demonstrations. If Puea Thai win by a landslide, it would be a "slap in the face" of the Democrats, but would likely provoke the military which has a record of launching coups when riled, said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.
"It's almost certain the Puea Thai will win," he said. "The question is by how much." Yingluck told reporters on Saturday she was confident Puea Thai would win more than 250 seats, an outright majority, while Abhisit appealed to supporters to give the Democrats the same margin of victory. Who is right will only be determined on Sunday, as there are no polls in the week before the election.
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